Kobe Bryant:
A lot is being made of Kobe Bryant’s statistical drop off this year. It causes a few questions to arise. #1) has Kobe lost a step? #2) is Kobe’s pinky injury really affecting him? #3) is it just that the Lakers have much more talent than they’ve had since the 3-peat or is it #4) a direct result of him playing less minutes?
My initial reaction is that is might be a combination of the four. But further research is necessary and will follow.
Through 15 games this year, Kobe is averaging his lowest points per game total since 2003-2004 and second lowest of his career since 2000. At the same time, he is averaging his lowest minutes per game (33.5) since 1997, his second year in the league. The initial reaction is that the drop-off is due to the decrease in minutes. That is further backed up by the fact that Kobe is shooting the highest percentage of his career from the field (46.9%). The one concerning thing about this percentage is Kobe’s inefficiency from beyond the arc. He is shooting 28.6% from 3-pt range, his lowest percentage since 2001-02 (25%). I think you could make the case that this is a result of either 1) tired legs from playing in the Olympics or 2) the injured pinky. Kobe’s decision to forego surgery on his pinky (which was also injured for the stretch run and the playoffs last year) has really affected his shot. From watching games, his shot is flatter than it has been in the past, which could also be a result of tired legs from the Olympics, but I’m going with the pinky.
Another interesting statistical deviation for Kobe is his FTA per game. He is currently averaging 6.3 FT per game, his lowest attempts per game since 1999-2000. Is this a result of Kobe’s decreased minutes, a result of him being less aggressive in driving to the basket, or a result of him having lost a step, thus being unable to turn the corner on defenders and draw the foul? Kobe’s FTA per 36 minutes (6.7) is down below his career average of 7.6. Kobe has been pulling up and settling for the midrange jumper more, which has led to a decrease in FT attempts, but in my opinion, it may not be any of the three. I think it’s a result of the Lakers being so far ahead in games late that Kobe hasn’t been forced to ice games at the end for the Lakers.
Looking at the remainder of his points per 36 minutes (26.2) is the fourth highest of his career. His assists per 36 minutes (4.5) are right in line with his career average of 4.6 and his rebounds per 36 minutes (5.4) are the fourth highest of his career, however his career average is 5.2, so it’s pretty much in line with his average as well. Kobe’s steals per 36 minutes (1.8) are the second highest of his career, which would also lead one to believe that the “he’s lost a step” theory would be put to rest since his defensive numbers are as solid as they’ve been in the past. This could also be a result of having a healthy Trevor Ariza and Andrew Bynum playing alongside him, both of whom are solid defenders in their own right.
Additionally, Kobe’s FGA per 36 minutes are the second highest of his career, which pretty much throws out the Kobe is deferring more to his teammates theory.
What does all this statistical analysis really mean?
After looking through all these stats, it would really appear that the majority of the declines in Kobe’s statistics are direct results of his decreased minutes. From watching a good amount of Laker games this year, this probably shouldn’t come as all that much of a surprise to me. He has been quite effective from 15 feet and in this year, and hasn’t been as big of a glutton for punishment (driving into the lane and forcing contact) as he has in the past, which would also help explain his drop off in FTA. As I mentioned earlier, Kobe’s outside shooting is concerning for Laker fans, as 28.6% is just not going to get it done. Laker fans need to hope it’s not a result of the injured pinky, as Kobe’s injury is not going to heal without surgery and the surgery isn’t happening this year.
Overall, I think from watching other players from around the league, this is the year that the torch is officially passed to Lebron and D-Wade in terms of statistical gaudiness. Kobe does seem to have lost a bit of his explosiveness and while he’s only 30 years old, he’s a 12 year veteran in the NBA. Kobe is still one of the elite players in the NBA, but I don’t think you say with any certainty anymore that he is hands down the best player in the NBA. At the same time, I still believe Kobe is an elite closer and would rather have him with the ball in his hands in need of a bucket at the end of the game than anyone else in basketball, if only because he can hurt you from anywhere on the court (in spite of his 28.6% 3-pt percentage at the time of the article - i still believe that Kobe can focus better than anyone else in the nba to hit a big shot).
Carry on.
My initial reaction is that is might be a combination of the four. But further research is necessary and will follow.
Through 15 games this year, Kobe is averaging his lowest points per game total since 2003-2004 and second lowest of his career since 2000. At the same time, he is averaging his lowest minutes per game (33.5) since 1997, his second year in the league. The initial reaction is that the drop-off is due to the decrease in minutes. That is further backed up by the fact that Kobe is shooting the highest percentage of his career from the field (46.9%). The one concerning thing about this percentage is Kobe’s inefficiency from beyond the arc. He is shooting 28.6% from 3-pt range, his lowest percentage since 2001-02 (25%). I think you could make the case that this is a result of either 1) tired legs from playing in the Olympics or 2) the injured pinky. Kobe’s decision to forego surgery on his pinky (which was also injured for the stretch run and the playoffs last year) has really affected his shot. From watching games, his shot is flatter than it has been in the past, which could also be a result of tired legs from the Olympics, but I’m going with the pinky.
Another interesting statistical deviation for Kobe is his FTA per game. He is currently averaging 6.3 FT per game, his lowest attempts per game since 1999-2000. Is this a result of Kobe’s decreased minutes, a result of him being less aggressive in driving to the basket, or a result of him having lost a step, thus being unable to turn the corner on defenders and draw the foul? Kobe’s FTA per 36 minutes (6.7) is down below his career average of 7.6. Kobe has been pulling up and settling for the midrange jumper more, which has led to a decrease in FT attempts, but in my opinion, it may not be any of the three. I think it’s a result of the Lakers being so far ahead in games late that Kobe hasn’t been forced to ice games at the end for the Lakers.
Looking at the remainder of his points per 36 minutes (26.2) is the fourth highest of his career. His assists per 36 minutes (4.5) are right in line with his career average of 4.6 and his rebounds per 36 minutes (5.4) are the fourth highest of his career, however his career average is 5.2, so it’s pretty much in line with his average as well. Kobe’s steals per 36 minutes (1.8) are the second highest of his career, which would also lead one to believe that the “he’s lost a step” theory would be put to rest since his defensive numbers are as solid as they’ve been in the past. This could also be a result of having a healthy Trevor Ariza and Andrew Bynum playing alongside him, both of whom are solid defenders in their own right.
Additionally, Kobe’s FGA per 36 minutes are the second highest of his career, which pretty much throws out the Kobe is deferring more to his teammates theory.
What does all this statistical analysis really mean?
After looking through all these stats, it would really appear that the majority of the declines in Kobe’s statistics are direct results of his decreased minutes. From watching a good amount of Laker games this year, this probably shouldn’t come as all that much of a surprise to me. He has been quite effective from 15 feet and in this year, and hasn’t been as big of a glutton for punishment (driving into the lane and forcing contact) as he has in the past, which would also help explain his drop off in FTA. As I mentioned earlier, Kobe’s outside shooting is concerning for Laker fans, as 28.6% is just not going to get it done. Laker fans need to hope it’s not a result of the injured pinky, as Kobe’s injury is not going to heal without surgery and the surgery isn’t happening this year.
Overall, I think from watching other players from around the league, this is the year that the torch is officially passed to Lebron and D-Wade in terms of statistical gaudiness. Kobe does seem to have lost a bit of his explosiveness and while he’s only 30 years old, he’s a 12 year veteran in the NBA. Kobe is still one of the elite players in the NBA, but I don’t think you say with any certainty anymore that he is hands down the best player in the NBA. At the same time, I still believe Kobe is an elite closer and would rather have him with the ball in his hands in need of a bucket at the end of the game than anyone else in basketball, if only because he can hurt you from anywhere on the court (in spite of his 28.6% 3-pt percentage at the time of the article - i still believe that Kobe can focus better than anyone else in the nba to hit a big shot).
Carry on.
No comments:
Post a Comment