Monday, December 29, 2008

The Kobe Bryant 20-Shot Myth


So in listening to come talking heads on TV prior to the Lakers-Celtics game talking about the Lakers record when Kobe takes less than 20 shots and receiving a text message from a friend that read [paraphrased] the lakers are 11-0 when Kobe attempts less than 20 shots, I decided it was time for a post.


I know that i've already chronicled Kobe's shooting once this year, but these kind of comments really irk me. Yes, Kobe has a history of being a selfish player. No, the Lakers are not a better team when he isn't shooting...


The statistical analysis prior to the New Orleans game on December 22nd.


There have been 16 games where Kobe has taken 20 or more shots... the Lakers are 11-5....


There have been 11 games, where Kobe has attempted less than 20 shots, the Lakers are 11-0.


Of those 11 games, only 4 were decided by less than 13 points. Of those 4 (New Orleans, Chicago, Washington and Phoenix), the Lakers led by 15 or more going into the 4th quarter 3 of the 4 times. The only time they didn't was that game against Phoenix.


Of the 16 games he's taken at least 20 shots and the Lakers won (11 games), 6 games were decided by less than 10 points, with only the Clippers game on nov 5th being decided by more than 13. Three of the Lakers' five losses were by a combined 6 points.



In the games where Kobe took 20 or more shots:


  1. 9 times he shot above his season avg on fg% (2 of which were losses)

  2. 4 times he shot below 40% (only 1 of which was a loss - which was Sacramento where the lakers lost by 12)

  3. 3 times he shot between 40% and 46.8% (2 of which were losses)


In the games he has taken less than 20 shots (all wins):


  1. 5 times he shot above his season avg

  2. 4 times he shot below 40%

  3. 2 times he shot between 40% and 46.8%

Overall, in games where Kobe has taken 20+ shots, Kobe is shooting 46.93%, in games where he has taken less than 20 shots, he's shooting 46.55%.


So basically, in conclusion, Kobe's shot attempts are a direct correlation with the size of the Lakers lead or more appropriately, the lack thereof.


I'd like to not spend most of my articles defending Kobe, however I feel like he's taken a lot of criticism this year for no real reason. The game he played against Boston was one of his best of the year. Even though Gasol stole the show at the end, it was Kobe who drew the double team and passed to an open Gasol on all 3 of Gasol's 4th quarter buckets.


KOBE!

2 comments:

Anthony said...

Isn't Kobe being categorized fairly accurately this year? A notch below the other few MVP candidates? Or do you think he's a legit MVP candidate this year?

D. Bickel said...

As of right now, Kobe is probably not a legit MVP candidate, as in, he's certainly behind Wade, Lebron and Dwight Howard... and Duncan as well in my mind. But I guess I don't really see much of a difference between Kobe and say, Chris Paul this year, in terms of the MVP.

I had also heard people (people on radio call-in shows) discussing that Gasol had been the Lakers' MVP this year, which is absurd.

If the Lakers win the West going away this year, doesn't Kobe at least have to be in the discussion, or at least be ahead of Duncan?

Granted, if the Heat make the playoffs with their front-line and Cleveland continues on their torrid pace - see soon to be updated power rankings - there's no way for Kobe to win MVP unless the Lakers win 70 games (not happening).