A few quick thoughts and opinions on the draft before I get in depth on a couple trades.
1) This really was a 1-2 person draft. I don't think there is a lot of talent in the draft pool, as far as providing impact players in the NBA. I think there could a handful of players who have successful careers as role players, but this draft will not produce many all-stars.
Quick thoughts:
Blake Griffin - Hands down the best in the draft. The 1 guy I think that could be a real impact player, potential all-star down the line
Hasheem Thabeet - The guy can't score, but could be a great defender. If he's winds up being Dikeme Mutumbo, this is a good choice for Memphis.
James Harden - ehhhh. Not feeling this pick. Felt that OKC needed to either go Rubio or Curry. I think Curry is the better fit for the team even if the third pick was a little high for him.
Tyreke Evans - How did Sacramento possibly pass on Ricky Rubio? I mean.... wow. They already have Kevin Martin, who is just a better version of Evans.
Rubio - The other guy in the this draft with star potential. Can't believe he fell to 5 and is now saying he may not leave Spain. Trade him to NYK and get it over with.
Johnny Flynn - I like him, but not at 6.... not after you just picked Rubio.
Stephen Curry - If you've read anything I've wrote, you know that I love Curry. I think he's a great shooter and can be a solid role player in the NBA. I don't think Curry is an all-star, but I do think he can be a starter and may wind up winning a few 3-point titles at all-star weekend.
Brandon Jennings - This kid is a clown. Compton stand up! Where was he when Milwaukee picked him? He just shows up like a half hour after he's taken and pops out from behind the stage waving likes he's running the show. He's going to hate Milwaukee. Compton stand up!
Terrance Williams & Earl Clark - really like both of these former Louisville players. Nice picks.
Austin Daye - Just terrible. How was he taken in the top 15? That is really what proved to me that this draft was terrible. Daye is softer than a pillow. I'm sure Detroit is going to enjoy that...
2) San Antonio - The Spurs are charmed. They trade away all their front court depth for Richard Jefferson (which i'll discuss more in a second) and then they wind up drafting the second best rebounder in the draft in the SECOND ROUND. How in the world did Dejuan Blair fall into the second round? Dejuan Blair averaged 15 and 12 in the Big East. He killed Hasheem Thabeet. I don't care that he's 6'5. He can rebound. He is going to be good for the Spurs. Watch. Now onto the trade. I really didn't like the trade. I don't think Jefferson is very good. I think he's a volume shooter who doesn't play a lot of defense. And now he's going to have to deal with being the 4th option. If he's ok with taking 10 shots per game, maybe it's a good trade. But Jefferson isnt the athlete he used to be and the Spurs gave up 2 interior players in order to get him. With Duncan getting older and older, the Spurs can't afford to play him 35 minutes per game in the regular season and could really use the depth Oberto and Thomas provide. The fact that they ended up with Blair makes this a slightly better trade. Blair can provide the Spurs with some interior depth and rebounding to ease the load off Duncan. Overall, I don't think the Spurs have moved past the Nuggets (GREAT trade for Ty Lawson for them by the way... Talk about a perfect fit.. They now have a PG whose speed can give the Lakers fits) or the Lakers with this trade.
3) Shaq to Cleveland - Cleveland gave up nothing to get Shaq, but if Cleveland fans thinks this pushes them past the Magic or even a healthy Boston Celtics... well, they're mistaken. Shaq isn't a great defender anymore and this doesn't help the Cavs defend the pick and roll or big men who can play on the exterior. Plus this limits Big Z's minutes and Big Z was actually a good complement to Lebron. Not sold on this... The one thing I cannot measure is how motivated this could make Shaq. If Shaq is able to get back into the same shape he was in his late 20s...
4) VC to Orlando - Wow. This is just something I don't understand. This is essentially trading Tony Battie, Rafer Alston, Courtney Lee and Hedo Turkoglu for Vince Carter. They are essentially taking away 60% of their starters from Game 1 of the NBA Finals... for Vince Carter. Vince Carter plays no defense. He shoots the ball about 30 times per game to score his 23.5 (his career average)... How does this work? Vince NEEDS the ball. Jameer Nelson needs the ball. Rashard Lewis needs the ball. This doesn't free up any more space on the floor. I just think this is absolutely terrible. If Hedo doesn't come back now, and basically everyone is saying he isn't returning... I like the Shaq to Cleveland trade a lot more.
Friday, June 26, 2009
Monday, June 8, 2009
NBA Finals Update
So last week I came out with a mini-Finals preview….
After two games, let’s see how my preview looks now.
"Backcourt: Rafer Alston, JJ Redick, Courtney Lee & Michael Pietrus vs. Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown, Sasha Vujacic and Kobe Bryant.Advantage: Lakers. The point guard position has been a real weakness for the Lakers all post-season, but they finally get a matchup that they can win. Alston is a bit of a wildcard & Orlando's lack of playoff experience in the backcourt could really wind up hurting them. Fisher should be able to match Alston's offensive numbers and in spite of his old legs, is still better defensively. If Pietrus is able to force Kobe into contested 16-20 footers, Orlando has a chance to keep this matchup close, but if the Magic cannot contain Kobe, I think the Lakers may have enough firepower....."
Update: Jameer Nelson is playing, and although playing limited minutes, provided a spark for the Magic in game 1. Interesting to note that down the stretch of game 2, Van Gundy went to a no-point guard lineup. My assessment was pretty spot on here. The Lakers have dominated the matchup of the guards. Kobe is averaging 34.5 ppg, in spite of some great defense by Pietrus, & while Farmar, Brown & Vujacic have combined for less than 10 points in two games, Fisher has been tremendous on both ends of the floor and has been the steadying influence at point guard the Lakers have needed.
"Frontcourt: Rashard Lewis, Hedo, Gortat, & Dwight Howard vs. Pau, Ariza, Walton, Odom & BynumAdvantage: Magic. The key to this series is which team will be better able to exploit the matchup problem they cause with their front court. The Lakers are going to start w/ Ariza on Hedo, Pau on Lewis and Bynum on Howard. I do not like that matchup for the Lakers. Bynum is not a good enough shooter to draw Howard away from the hoop when the Lakers are on offense and thus, can prevent the Lakers from using their advantage inside in the Gasol-Lewis matchup. I think the Lakers really have two options & neither of them involve Andrew Bynum. The Lakers should either match Gasol on Howard and Lamar on Lewis, which would force Orlando to decide if they want to defend Gasol with Howard, which would enable the Lakers to pull Howard 12 feet away from the basket, lest Stan Van Gundy wants to see Pau Gasol make it rain all night from the midrange or defend Odom with Howard, most likely to similar results. The other matchup you could see the Lakers try is a lineup of 2 of Fisher, Brown, Farmar and Vujacic to go with Kobe, Ariza & Gasol. Kobe & Ariza would matchup against Lewis & Hedo. I think this could even be an intriguing lineup if you replace Gasol w/ Bynum and allow Bynum to show his worth against Superman for a few minutes.When push comes to shove, Howard is going to get his 20 &15 vs the Lakers, it's inevitable. The Lakers need to limit Lewis & Turk to under 40 ppg between the two of them and counter that with 40ppg from Gasol, Odom and Bynum. If the Lakers are able to do that, I expect they'll prevail."
Update: The Magic still have the advantage here, however Howard has been underwhelming. He’s getting the 15 rebounds I assumed he would, but has struggled to score the basketball. Turk & Lewis were held in check in game 1 & both had fantastic game 2 performances. However, the Lakers were able to get enough out of Odom & Gasol both nights to pull out the victories. The most intriguing matchup has been Odom-Lewis. Odom did a great job on Lewis in game 1 and an equally unimpressive job on Lewis in game 2. Lewis is going to score points, but Odom missed too many assignments and gave Lewis to many uncontested looks down the stretch in the 2nd quarter, which sparked Lewis’ 18 point quarter.
"I really don't like the matchup for the Lakers though, which is why I'm predicting Orlando to dictate the matchups and pace of play, plus I expect them to continue their red-shooting and crush Kobe's hopes of a post-Shaq title."
Update: Phil Jackson has done a great job refusing to give in to the Magic’s quirky lineup. He has stayed with his Gasol, Odom, Ariza, Kobe, Fisher lineup down the stretch and it has paid off. The Magic can’t seem to find an answer for Gasol AND Odom in the paint and when they’ve defended Kobe one on one, he’s been able to score, even when the Magic have contested shots well. His performance in game 1 was as good as any game he’s ever played. 40 points, 8 rebounds, 8 assists. It seemed like Kobe was trying to carve his name into the Finals MVP Trophy in game 1… and he may have succeeded.
"Orlando. In. Six.
just trying to be real....."
Update: Not going to update my prediction. I made my prediction, I have to live with it. I think the Magic have to be a bit discouraged after game 2, however heading home to the friendly confines of Orlando will be nice for game 3. I expect a Magic victory in game 3 & games 4 & 5 will be the turning point in the series. All three games at home are essential for Orlando, as beating the Lakers twice in a row at Staples is a rather large feat.
After two games, let’s see how my preview looks now.
"Backcourt: Rafer Alston, JJ Redick, Courtney Lee & Michael Pietrus vs. Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown, Sasha Vujacic and Kobe Bryant.Advantage: Lakers. The point guard position has been a real weakness for the Lakers all post-season, but they finally get a matchup that they can win. Alston is a bit of a wildcard & Orlando's lack of playoff experience in the backcourt could really wind up hurting them. Fisher should be able to match Alston's offensive numbers and in spite of his old legs, is still better defensively. If Pietrus is able to force Kobe into contested 16-20 footers, Orlando has a chance to keep this matchup close, but if the Magic cannot contain Kobe, I think the Lakers may have enough firepower....."
Update: Jameer Nelson is playing, and although playing limited minutes, provided a spark for the Magic in game 1. Interesting to note that down the stretch of game 2, Van Gundy went to a no-point guard lineup. My assessment was pretty spot on here. The Lakers have dominated the matchup of the guards. Kobe is averaging 34.5 ppg, in spite of some great defense by Pietrus, & while Farmar, Brown & Vujacic have combined for less than 10 points in two games, Fisher has been tremendous on both ends of the floor and has been the steadying influence at point guard the Lakers have needed.
"Frontcourt: Rashard Lewis, Hedo, Gortat, & Dwight Howard vs. Pau, Ariza, Walton, Odom & BynumAdvantage: Magic. The key to this series is which team will be better able to exploit the matchup problem they cause with their front court. The Lakers are going to start w/ Ariza on Hedo, Pau on Lewis and Bynum on Howard. I do not like that matchup for the Lakers. Bynum is not a good enough shooter to draw Howard away from the hoop when the Lakers are on offense and thus, can prevent the Lakers from using their advantage inside in the Gasol-Lewis matchup. I think the Lakers really have two options & neither of them involve Andrew Bynum. The Lakers should either match Gasol on Howard and Lamar on Lewis, which would force Orlando to decide if they want to defend Gasol with Howard, which would enable the Lakers to pull Howard 12 feet away from the basket, lest Stan Van Gundy wants to see Pau Gasol make it rain all night from the midrange or defend Odom with Howard, most likely to similar results. The other matchup you could see the Lakers try is a lineup of 2 of Fisher, Brown, Farmar and Vujacic to go with Kobe, Ariza & Gasol. Kobe & Ariza would matchup against Lewis & Hedo. I think this could even be an intriguing lineup if you replace Gasol w/ Bynum and allow Bynum to show his worth against Superman for a few minutes.When push comes to shove, Howard is going to get his 20 &15 vs the Lakers, it's inevitable. The Lakers need to limit Lewis & Turk to under 40 ppg between the two of them and counter that with 40ppg from Gasol, Odom and Bynum. If the Lakers are able to do that, I expect they'll prevail."
Update: The Magic still have the advantage here, however Howard has been underwhelming. He’s getting the 15 rebounds I assumed he would, but has struggled to score the basketball. Turk & Lewis were held in check in game 1 & both had fantastic game 2 performances. However, the Lakers were able to get enough out of Odom & Gasol both nights to pull out the victories. The most intriguing matchup has been Odom-Lewis. Odom did a great job on Lewis in game 1 and an equally unimpressive job on Lewis in game 2. Lewis is going to score points, but Odom missed too many assignments and gave Lewis to many uncontested looks down the stretch in the 2nd quarter, which sparked Lewis’ 18 point quarter.
"I really don't like the matchup for the Lakers though, which is why I'm predicting Orlando to dictate the matchups and pace of play, plus I expect them to continue their red-shooting and crush Kobe's hopes of a post-Shaq title."
Update: Phil Jackson has done a great job refusing to give in to the Magic’s quirky lineup. He has stayed with his Gasol, Odom, Ariza, Kobe, Fisher lineup down the stretch and it has paid off. The Magic can’t seem to find an answer for Gasol AND Odom in the paint and when they’ve defended Kobe one on one, he’s been able to score, even when the Magic have contested shots well. His performance in game 1 was as good as any game he’s ever played. 40 points, 8 rebounds, 8 assists. It seemed like Kobe was trying to carve his name into the Finals MVP Trophy in game 1… and he may have succeeded.
"Orlando. In. Six.
just trying to be real....."
Update: Not going to update my prediction. I made my prediction, I have to live with it. I think the Magic have to be a bit discouraged after game 2, however heading home to the friendly confines of Orlando will be nice for game 3. I expect a Magic victory in game 3 & games 4 & 5 will be the turning point in the series. All three games at home are essential for Orlando, as beating the Lakers twice in a row at Staples is a rather large feat.
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
NBA Finals Preview: Lakers-Magic
So in spite of the puppet commercials, David Stern was not able to rig a cleveland-lakers series... a lebron-kobe matchup, so the battle to be the heir-apparent to Jordan will have to wait a year, if it ever happens (I really believe that Kobe's window of being a special player is rapidly closing, I mean, I have to think hard to remember times this playoffs where he has been explosive going to the rim).
Instead, we get Orlando-Los Angeles. Trevor Ariza's past vs his present. The real X-Factor in this series is whether or not Jameer Nelson plays and if he does, how effective will he be? I'm going to assume that Jameer Nelson is not playing.... I just can't imagine someone being out for so long, then to come back for 7 games and be adjusted to NBA game speed.
Backcourt: Rafer Alston, JJ Redick, Courtney Lee & Michael Pietrus vs. Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown, Sasha Vujacic and Kobe Bryant.
Advantage: Lakers. The point guard position has been a real weakness for the Lakers all post-season, but they finally get a matchup that they can win. Alston is a bit of a wildcard & Orlando's lack of playoff experience in the backcourt could really wind up hurting them. Fisher should be able to match Alston's offensive numbers and in spite of his old legs, is still better defensively. If Pietrus is able to force Kobe into contested 16-20 footers, Orlando has a chance to keep this matchup close, but if the Magic cannot contain Kobe, I think the Lakers may have enough firepower.....
Frontcourt: Rashard Lewis, Hedo, Gortat, & Dwight Howard vs. Pau, Ariza, Walton, Odom & Bynum
Advantage: Magic. The key to this series is which team will be better able to exploit the matchup problem they cause with their front court. The Lakers are going to start w/ Ariza on Hedo, Pau on Lewis and Bynum on Howard. I do not like that matchup for the Lakers. Bynum is not a good enough shooter to draw Howard away from the hoop when the Lakers are on offense and thus, can prevent the Lakers from using their advantage inside in the Gasol-Lewis matchup. I think the Lakers really have two options & neither of them involve Andrew Bynum. The Lakers should either match Gasol on Howard and Lamar on Lewis, which would force Orlando to decide if they want to defend Gasol with Howard, which would enable the Lakers to pull Howard 12 feet away from the basket, lest Stan Van Gundy wants to see Pau Gasol make it rain all night from the midrange or defend Odom with Howard, most likely to similar results. The other matchup you could see the Lakers try is a lineup of 2 of Fisher, Brown, Farmar and Vujacic to go with Kobe, Ariza & Gasol. Kobe & Ariza would matchup against Lewis & Hedo. I think this could even be an intriguing lineup if you replace Gasol w/ Bynum and allow Bynum to show his worth against Superman for a few minutes.
When push comes to shove, Howard is going to get his 20 &15 vs the Lakers, it's inevitable. The Lakers need to limit Lewis & Turk to under 40 ppg between the two of them and counter that with 40ppg from Gasol, Odom and Bynum. If the Lakers are able to do that, I expect they'll prevail.
I really don't like the matchup for the Lakers though, which is why I'm predicting Orlando to dictate the matchups and pace of play, plus I expect them to continue their red-shooting and crush Kobe's hopes of a post-Shaq title.
Orlando. In. Six.
just trying to be real.....
Instead, we get Orlando-Los Angeles. Trevor Ariza's past vs his present. The real X-Factor in this series is whether or not Jameer Nelson plays and if he does, how effective will he be? I'm going to assume that Jameer Nelson is not playing.... I just can't imagine someone being out for so long, then to come back for 7 games and be adjusted to NBA game speed.
Backcourt: Rafer Alston, JJ Redick, Courtney Lee & Michael Pietrus vs. Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown, Sasha Vujacic and Kobe Bryant.
Advantage: Lakers. The point guard position has been a real weakness for the Lakers all post-season, but they finally get a matchup that they can win. Alston is a bit of a wildcard & Orlando's lack of playoff experience in the backcourt could really wind up hurting them. Fisher should be able to match Alston's offensive numbers and in spite of his old legs, is still better defensively. If Pietrus is able to force Kobe into contested 16-20 footers, Orlando has a chance to keep this matchup close, but if the Magic cannot contain Kobe, I think the Lakers may have enough firepower.....
Frontcourt: Rashard Lewis, Hedo, Gortat, & Dwight Howard vs. Pau, Ariza, Walton, Odom & Bynum
Advantage: Magic. The key to this series is which team will be better able to exploit the matchup problem they cause with their front court. The Lakers are going to start w/ Ariza on Hedo, Pau on Lewis and Bynum on Howard. I do not like that matchup for the Lakers. Bynum is not a good enough shooter to draw Howard away from the hoop when the Lakers are on offense and thus, can prevent the Lakers from using their advantage inside in the Gasol-Lewis matchup. I think the Lakers really have two options & neither of them involve Andrew Bynum. The Lakers should either match Gasol on Howard and Lamar on Lewis, which would force Orlando to decide if they want to defend Gasol with Howard, which would enable the Lakers to pull Howard 12 feet away from the basket, lest Stan Van Gundy wants to see Pau Gasol make it rain all night from the midrange or defend Odom with Howard, most likely to similar results. The other matchup you could see the Lakers try is a lineup of 2 of Fisher, Brown, Farmar and Vujacic to go with Kobe, Ariza & Gasol. Kobe & Ariza would matchup against Lewis & Hedo. I think this could even be an intriguing lineup if you replace Gasol w/ Bynum and allow Bynum to show his worth against Superman for a few minutes.
When push comes to shove, Howard is going to get his 20 &15 vs the Lakers, it's inevitable. The Lakers need to limit Lewis & Turk to under 40 ppg between the two of them and counter that with 40ppg from Gasol, Odom and Bynum. If the Lakers are able to do that, I expect they'll prevail.
I really don't like the matchup for the Lakers though, which is why I'm predicting Orlando to dictate the matchups and pace of play, plus I expect them to continue their red-shooting and crush Kobe's hopes of a post-Shaq title.
Orlando. In. Six.
just trying to be real.....
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