So in spite of the puppet commercials, David Stern was not able to rig a cleveland-lakers series... a lebron-kobe matchup, so the battle to be the heir-apparent to Jordan will have to wait a year, if it ever happens (I really believe that Kobe's window of being a special player is rapidly closing, I mean, I have to think hard to remember times this playoffs where he has been explosive going to the rim).
Instead, we get Orlando-Los Angeles. Trevor Ariza's past vs his present. The real X-Factor in this series is whether or not Jameer Nelson plays and if he does, how effective will he be? I'm going to assume that Jameer Nelson is not playing.... I just can't imagine someone being out for so long, then to come back for 7 games and be adjusted to NBA game speed.
Backcourt: Rafer Alston, JJ Redick, Courtney Lee & Michael Pietrus vs. Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown, Sasha Vujacic and Kobe Bryant.
Advantage: Lakers. The point guard position has been a real weakness for the Lakers all post-season, but they finally get a matchup that they can win. Alston is a bit of a wildcard & Orlando's lack of playoff experience in the backcourt could really wind up hurting them. Fisher should be able to match Alston's offensive numbers and in spite of his old legs, is still better defensively. If Pietrus is able to force Kobe into contested 16-20 footers, Orlando has a chance to keep this matchup close, but if the Magic cannot contain Kobe, I think the Lakers may have enough firepower.....
Frontcourt: Rashard Lewis, Hedo, Gortat, & Dwight Howard vs. Pau, Ariza, Walton, Odom & Bynum
Advantage: Magic. The key to this series is which team will be better able to exploit the matchup problem they cause with their front court. The Lakers are going to start w/ Ariza on Hedo, Pau on Lewis and Bynum on Howard. I do not like that matchup for the Lakers. Bynum is not a good enough shooter to draw Howard away from the hoop when the Lakers are on offense and thus, can prevent the Lakers from using their advantage inside in the Gasol-Lewis matchup. I think the Lakers really have two options & neither of them involve Andrew Bynum. The Lakers should either match Gasol on Howard and Lamar on Lewis, which would force Orlando to decide if they want to defend Gasol with Howard, which would enable the Lakers to pull Howard 12 feet away from the basket, lest Stan Van Gundy wants to see Pau Gasol make it rain all night from the midrange or defend Odom with Howard, most likely to similar results. The other matchup you could see the Lakers try is a lineup of 2 of Fisher, Brown, Farmar and Vujacic to go with Kobe, Ariza & Gasol. Kobe & Ariza would matchup against Lewis & Hedo. I think this could even be an intriguing lineup if you replace Gasol w/ Bynum and allow Bynum to show his worth against Superman for a few minutes.
When push comes to shove, Howard is going to get his 20 &15 vs the Lakers, it's inevitable. The Lakers need to limit Lewis & Turk to under 40 ppg between the two of them and counter that with 40ppg from Gasol, Odom and Bynum. If the Lakers are able to do that, I expect they'll prevail.
I really don't like the matchup for the Lakers though, which is why I'm predicting Orlando to dictate the matchups and pace of play, plus I expect them to continue their red-shooting and crush Kobe's hopes of a post-Shaq title.
Orlando. In. Six.
just trying to be real.....
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