NBA Pre-Season Power Rankings & A brief NBA Preview
30. Minnesota – their draft was an absolute disaster. They got the second best player, but the situation is so dire in minnesota, that he chose to stay in spain for the next two years. I do like Johnny Flynn though. Kevin Love's injury isn’t helping matters. Not sure I like the Kurt Rambis hire as his brief tenure as head coach in Los Angeles wasn't what I would consider a great success.
29. Sacramento – talk about completely blowing their pick. The Kings had rubio handed to them on a silver platter and went with Memphis G Tyreke Evans, who is a 6'6 combo guard and as I've mentioned before, is in my mind, a worse version of Kevin Martin. Early reports on Tyreke have been good out of Sacramento, however, with a true PG like Rubio available, why not take him? Even if he stays in Spain for a year or two, it's not a big deal, as Sacramento still has a few years to go before they'll even challenge for the playoffs in the West.
28. Memphis - This may be the most intriguing team. Memphis + Zach Randolph + Allen Iverson + Rudy Gay + OJ Mayo + Chris Wallace = pure comedy. Is there going to be a more contentious locker room than Memphis' this season? Is Zach Randolph going to play dodgeball with Marc Gasol like he used to do in Portland? Is there an over/under on number of fistfights in practice every week? If so, can I take the over?
27. New Jersey/Brooklyn Nets - A new owner could really breathe life into this franchise, which desperately needs to move to Brooklyn. The fact remains, they're still not going to get Lebron, but a move would certainly be beneficial. I think the real wildcard here could be how Chris Douglas Roberts plays in his second season after a fairly solid pre-season. I may have the Nets ranked a little too low here…. And I kind of like their young nucleus of Devin Harris-Courtney Lee-Terrance Williams & CDR….. hmmmm. And Brook Lopez isn't as bad as I thought either.
26. Milwaukee - This is another disaster. Michael Redd is in the last year of his deal and the team is so bad he'll likely opt out leaving $18.3M on the table to play for a contender. Bogut hasn't been a complete bust, but he certainly hasn't been #1 pick productive. They did pick up Compton standout Brandon Jennings in the draft. He won the award for best flat-top at the draft. Compton Stand Up!
25. Golden State - The truly sad thing here is that I love this team. A nucleus of Monta Ellis-Steph Curry-Captain Jack-Anthony Randolph has the potential for pure comedy and tons of points, but like Memphis, there aren't enough shots to go around and I can already tell Monta Ellis is going to hate his life. Captain Jack is asking to be traded. Nellie still isn't sure what year it is. This season has disaster written all over it in Golden State.
24. Indiana - This could be the first ever team to legitimately pull off a white wash. And even better, they don't need any Euros to do it. Travis Diener at PG, Dunleavy at SG, Hansborough at F, Murphy at F and Jeff Foster at C. I know Foster is an Aussie… so if you want to discount him, you can throw Josh McRoberts at C. Boom. That's gold. I just know I feel very sorry for Danny Granger.
23. Charlotte - I really don't understand that whole trading Emeka Okafor for Tyson Chandler thing…. That's really bad. DJ Augustin was suprisingly good when healthy last year & a starting 5 of Augustin, Raja Bell, Gerald Wallace, Boris Diaw, & Chandler isn't awful…. Not much bench depth here either.
22. New York Knicks - Cleared all that payroll. Didn't get either of the two guys they coveted in the draft, but I do really like the Toney Douglas pick. Maybe not a complete disaster with a lineup of Duhon-Douglas-Wilson Chandler-Al Harrington & David Lee w/ a bench of NateRob, Jordan Hill, Darko, Eddy Curry & Danilo Gallinari
21. Toronto - Congrats on overpaying Hedo. That's gonna work out really well for you….. it won't.
20. Philadelphia - Still the same team they had last year. They were legitimately better without Elton Brand. Like the Jrue Holiday draft pick. He's going to be a solid defender in this league.
19. Washington - I love Agent Zero. This team has talent, but they always seem to suffer an unfortunate injury. The Caron-Antawn-Gil trio is intriguing.
18. Detroit - Can someone please explain to me why you would draft Austin Daye when you have Charlie Villanueva, Tayshaun Prince, Jason Maxiel, Old Ben Wallace, Kwame Brown and Chris Wilcox all vying for minutes in the front court? Also, I refuse to rank a team who is going to play Old Ben Wallace & Kwame Brown for over 50 combined minutes a game any higher than this.
17. Los Angeles Clippers - Their season depends on the health of Blake Griffin and Baron Davis' ability to return to his Golden State form. With those two, plus Eric Gordon, Al Thornton & a combo of Marcus Camby & Chris Kaman up front, the Clips should really contend for the 8th seed in the West.
16. Oklahoma City - This is probably way too high for the Thunder, but they are my favorite team in the NBA not named the Los Angeles Lakers & with the Durantula, Russ Westbrook & Jeff Green, the Thunder can score with anyone. It was really unfortunate they didn't land the #1 pick, because if you added Blake Griffin to that nucleus, they'd be good until 2015….
15. Phoenix - What is this team's identity? If they go back to the fun 'n gun, I like their odds at sneaking into the playoffs. Still don't think they should have ever gotten rid of Coach Mike.
14. Miami - Did they do anything in the off-season? Once again, unless Beasley gets out of rehab and decides to play on both ends of the court, this season is going to be up to D-Wade.
13. Atlanta - Another candidate for the "Did absolutely nothing in the offseason" award. Still like their combination of Joe Johnson-Josh Smith-Al Horford. Will be getting a first hand look at them at Staples on Sunday when they travel to LA.
12. Chicago - Think the Ben Gordon departure may be bigger than people think, but I think Derrick Rose has it…. even though "it" isn't the ability to read or take standarized tests. Luckily for him & the Bulls, neither of those are prerequistes to being a star in this league.
11. Houston – Yao. Out. Artest. Gone. Ariza. In. I think a lot of people are overlooking the fact that Ariza had wide-open looks all of last year in LA. Who is going to get him those looks in Houston? However, this team plays with great desire & finds way to win. May take them a while to get going, but I think they reach the playoffs again.
10. Dallas - I greatly enjoy their selection of Rodrique Beaubois. I greatly enjoyed the Dirk Off-Season potential Baby's Mama in jail sideshow. Great Comedy. Dallas is good, but still not truly elite in the West. Don't see them getting past the first round.
9. Orlando - Don't understand the VC move. You traded Courtney Lee, Rafer Alston and essentially Hedo for VC. How did they get better or even stay the same? Can someone explain this to me?
8. Utah - A healthy Deron Williams all season should carry this team & they managed to keep Boozer & Millsap. Well done. Think they'd actually beat 3-seeded Portland in the playoffs if my predictions are accurate… which they won't be.
7. New Orleans - I absolutely positively adore Chris Paul's basketball ability. Trading for Okafor was an underrated moved as well. Well Played Nawlins. The only question is, will this team play for Byron Scott?
6. Denver - A team that didn't do much in the off-season, but again, they didn't have to. They'll take a step back this year just because I think some teams around them had more room for improvement, but neither the Lakers or Spurs want to see them early in the playoffs.
5. Portland - For some reason, I love Portland. Not sure I like the unecessary Aldridge extension, but he's a solid player, especially in tandem w/ Brandon Roy. Like the addition of Patty Mills as well through the draft. He could be a serious PG in this league and provide Roy with a needed break from handling the rock.
4. Cleveland - Don't like the Shaq trade. Still think Lebron is the most talented overall player in the league and think they'll win a ton of games in the East. Don't think they can beat a healthy Boston squad in the playoffs this year though.
3. San Antonio - I was very skepitcal of them giving up Oberto & Kurt Thomas for Richard Jefferson. Then, they turned around & signed McDyess & draft DaJuan Blair, resolidfying their front court depth. Why do I ever doubt the Spurs? A healthy Manu & they may be better than the defending champs.
2. Boston - The big question here is how the team's best young asset responds to his GM publicly shopping him. If I'm Rajon Rondo and Ainge has literally dragged me through the mud after the playoffs I had, I'd be furious. It's really unbelievable how dirty that was. That said, the team improved with the addition of RaSHEED Wallace. If Garnett's knees holdup and Ray Allen does his impersonation of Jesus Shuttlesworth in the playoffs again, the Celtics should be seeing a return trip to the Finals.
1. Los Angeles Lakers - The defending champs get top billing. This is unquestionably the most talented team in the NBA. They have Kobe, Pau Gasol (A solid top 15 player in the league), Lamar, Artest, Bynum, Derek Fisher & a bundle of role players that learned how to win last year & learned how to play in the system. They essentially traded Trevor Ariza for Ron Artest & in a potential match up down the line against either Boston or Cleveland, that is a trade that I would make 10 out of 10 times. The only question is, do the lakers get to that point? Will Artest allow Kobe to control him? Will Kobe allow Artest to be himself? Artest is clearly bat-shit crazy & meets random people on LA from Twitter frequently. This is frightening as a Laker fan… but I've got my popcorn ready… as I think this team can handle this.
Western Conf Standings:
1. Los Angeles Lakers
2. San Antonio
3. Portland
4. Denver
5. New Orleans
6. Utah
7. Dallas
8. Houston
9. Phoenix
10. Oklahoma City
Eastern Conf Standings
1. Boston
2. Cleveland
3. Orlando
4. Chicago
5. Atlanta
6. Miami
7. Detroit
8. Washington
9. Philadelphia
10. Toronto
Awards:
MVP - Lebron, Kobe, D-Wade, Durant, CP3
ROY - Griffin, Griffin, Griffin, Griffin
Playoffs:
Lakers over Houston
San Antonio over Dallas
Utah over Portland
Denver over New Orleans
Boston over Washington
Cleveland over Detroit
Orlando over Miami
Chicago over Atlanta
Lakers over Utah
San Antonio over Denver
Boston over Chicago
Orlando over Cleveland
San Antonio over Lakers
Boston over Orlando
San Antonio over Boston
Monday, October 26, 2009
Friday, June 26, 2009
Yo-Yo'ing up and down the NBA Draft
A few quick thoughts and opinions on the draft before I get in depth on a couple trades.
1) This really was a 1-2 person draft. I don't think there is a lot of talent in the draft pool, as far as providing impact players in the NBA. I think there could a handful of players who have successful careers as role players, but this draft will not produce many all-stars.
Quick thoughts:
Blake Griffin - Hands down the best in the draft. The 1 guy I think that could be a real impact player, potential all-star down the line
Hasheem Thabeet - The guy can't score, but could be a great defender. If he's winds up being Dikeme Mutumbo, this is a good choice for Memphis.
James Harden - ehhhh. Not feeling this pick. Felt that OKC needed to either go Rubio or Curry. I think Curry is the better fit for the team even if the third pick was a little high for him.
Tyreke Evans - How did Sacramento possibly pass on Ricky Rubio? I mean.... wow. They already have Kevin Martin, who is just a better version of Evans.
Rubio - The other guy in the this draft with star potential. Can't believe he fell to 5 and is now saying he may not leave Spain. Trade him to NYK and get it over with.
Johnny Flynn - I like him, but not at 6.... not after you just picked Rubio.
Stephen Curry - If you've read anything I've wrote, you know that I love Curry. I think he's a great shooter and can be a solid role player in the NBA. I don't think Curry is an all-star, but I do think he can be a starter and may wind up winning a few 3-point titles at all-star weekend.
Brandon Jennings - This kid is a clown. Compton stand up! Where was he when Milwaukee picked him? He just shows up like a half hour after he's taken and pops out from behind the stage waving likes he's running the show. He's going to hate Milwaukee. Compton stand up!
Terrance Williams & Earl Clark - really like both of these former Louisville players. Nice picks.
Austin Daye - Just terrible. How was he taken in the top 15? That is really what proved to me that this draft was terrible. Daye is softer than a pillow. I'm sure Detroit is going to enjoy that...
2) San Antonio - The Spurs are charmed. They trade away all their front court depth for Richard Jefferson (which i'll discuss more in a second) and then they wind up drafting the second best rebounder in the draft in the SECOND ROUND. How in the world did Dejuan Blair fall into the second round? Dejuan Blair averaged 15 and 12 in the Big East. He killed Hasheem Thabeet. I don't care that he's 6'5. He can rebound. He is going to be good for the Spurs. Watch. Now onto the trade. I really didn't like the trade. I don't think Jefferson is very good. I think he's a volume shooter who doesn't play a lot of defense. And now he's going to have to deal with being the 4th option. If he's ok with taking 10 shots per game, maybe it's a good trade. But Jefferson isnt the athlete he used to be and the Spurs gave up 2 interior players in order to get him. With Duncan getting older and older, the Spurs can't afford to play him 35 minutes per game in the regular season and could really use the depth Oberto and Thomas provide. The fact that they ended up with Blair makes this a slightly better trade. Blair can provide the Spurs with some interior depth and rebounding to ease the load off Duncan. Overall, I don't think the Spurs have moved past the Nuggets (GREAT trade for Ty Lawson for them by the way... Talk about a perfect fit.. They now have a PG whose speed can give the Lakers fits) or the Lakers with this trade.
3) Shaq to Cleveland - Cleveland gave up nothing to get Shaq, but if Cleveland fans thinks this pushes them past the Magic or even a healthy Boston Celtics... well, they're mistaken. Shaq isn't a great defender anymore and this doesn't help the Cavs defend the pick and roll or big men who can play on the exterior. Plus this limits Big Z's minutes and Big Z was actually a good complement to Lebron. Not sold on this... The one thing I cannot measure is how motivated this could make Shaq. If Shaq is able to get back into the same shape he was in his late 20s...
4) VC to Orlando - Wow. This is just something I don't understand. This is essentially trading Tony Battie, Rafer Alston, Courtney Lee and Hedo Turkoglu for Vince Carter. They are essentially taking away 60% of their starters from Game 1 of the NBA Finals... for Vince Carter. Vince Carter plays no defense. He shoots the ball about 30 times per game to score his 23.5 (his career average)... How does this work? Vince NEEDS the ball. Jameer Nelson needs the ball. Rashard Lewis needs the ball. This doesn't free up any more space on the floor. I just think this is absolutely terrible. If Hedo doesn't come back now, and basically everyone is saying he isn't returning... I like the Shaq to Cleveland trade a lot more.
1) This really was a 1-2 person draft. I don't think there is a lot of talent in the draft pool, as far as providing impact players in the NBA. I think there could a handful of players who have successful careers as role players, but this draft will not produce many all-stars.
Quick thoughts:
Blake Griffin - Hands down the best in the draft. The 1 guy I think that could be a real impact player, potential all-star down the line
Hasheem Thabeet - The guy can't score, but could be a great defender. If he's winds up being Dikeme Mutumbo, this is a good choice for Memphis.
James Harden - ehhhh. Not feeling this pick. Felt that OKC needed to either go Rubio or Curry. I think Curry is the better fit for the team even if the third pick was a little high for him.
Tyreke Evans - How did Sacramento possibly pass on Ricky Rubio? I mean.... wow. They already have Kevin Martin, who is just a better version of Evans.
Rubio - The other guy in the this draft with star potential. Can't believe he fell to 5 and is now saying he may not leave Spain. Trade him to NYK and get it over with.
Johnny Flynn - I like him, but not at 6.... not after you just picked Rubio.
Stephen Curry - If you've read anything I've wrote, you know that I love Curry. I think he's a great shooter and can be a solid role player in the NBA. I don't think Curry is an all-star, but I do think he can be a starter and may wind up winning a few 3-point titles at all-star weekend.
Brandon Jennings - This kid is a clown. Compton stand up! Where was he when Milwaukee picked him? He just shows up like a half hour after he's taken and pops out from behind the stage waving likes he's running the show. He's going to hate Milwaukee. Compton stand up!
Terrance Williams & Earl Clark - really like both of these former Louisville players. Nice picks.
Austin Daye - Just terrible. How was he taken in the top 15? That is really what proved to me that this draft was terrible. Daye is softer than a pillow. I'm sure Detroit is going to enjoy that...
2) San Antonio - The Spurs are charmed. They trade away all their front court depth for Richard Jefferson (which i'll discuss more in a second) and then they wind up drafting the second best rebounder in the draft in the SECOND ROUND. How in the world did Dejuan Blair fall into the second round? Dejuan Blair averaged 15 and 12 in the Big East. He killed Hasheem Thabeet. I don't care that he's 6'5. He can rebound. He is going to be good for the Spurs. Watch. Now onto the trade. I really didn't like the trade. I don't think Jefferson is very good. I think he's a volume shooter who doesn't play a lot of defense. And now he's going to have to deal with being the 4th option. If he's ok with taking 10 shots per game, maybe it's a good trade. But Jefferson isnt the athlete he used to be and the Spurs gave up 2 interior players in order to get him. With Duncan getting older and older, the Spurs can't afford to play him 35 minutes per game in the regular season and could really use the depth Oberto and Thomas provide. The fact that they ended up with Blair makes this a slightly better trade. Blair can provide the Spurs with some interior depth and rebounding to ease the load off Duncan. Overall, I don't think the Spurs have moved past the Nuggets (GREAT trade for Ty Lawson for them by the way... Talk about a perfect fit.. They now have a PG whose speed can give the Lakers fits) or the Lakers with this trade.
3) Shaq to Cleveland - Cleveland gave up nothing to get Shaq, but if Cleveland fans thinks this pushes them past the Magic or even a healthy Boston Celtics... well, they're mistaken. Shaq isn't a great defender anymore and this doesn't help the Cavs defend the pick and roll or big men who can play on the exterior. Plus this limits Big Z's minutes and Big Z was actually a good complement to Lebron. Not sold on this... The one thing I cannot measure is how motivated this could make Shaq. If Shaq is able to get back into the same shape he was in his late 20s...
4) VC to Orlando - Wow. This is just something I don't understand. This is essentially trading Tony Battie, Rafer Alston, Courtney Lee and Hedo Turkoglu for Vince Carter. They are essentially taking away 60% of their starters from Game 1 of the NBA Finals... for Vince Carter. Vince Carter plays no defense. He shoots the ball about 30 times per game to score his 23.5 (his career average)... How does this work? Vince NEEDS the ball. Jameer Nelson needs the ball. Rashard Lewis needs the ball. This doesn't free up any more space on the floor. I just think this is absolutely terrible. If Hedo doesn't come back now, and basically everyone is saying he isn't returning... I like the Shaq to Cleveland trade a lot more.
Monday, June 8, 2009
NBA Finals Update
So last week I came out with a mini-Finals preview….
After two games, let’s see how my preview looks now.
"Backcourt: Rafer Alston, JJ Redick, Courtney Lee & Michael Pietrus vs. Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown, Sasha Vujacic and Kobe Bryant.Advantage: Lakers. The point guard position has been a real weakness for the Lakers all post-season, but they finally get a matchup that they can win. Alston is a bit of a wildcard & Orlando's lack of playoff experience in the backcourt could really wind up hurting them. Fisher should be able to match Alston's offensive numbers and in spite of his old legs, is still better defensively. If Pietrus is able to force Kobe into contested 16-20 footers, Orlando has a chance to keep this matchup close, but if the Magic cannot contain Kobe, I think the Lakers may have enough firepower....."
Update: Jameer Nelson is playing, and although playing limited minutes, provided a spark for the Magic in game 1. Interesting to note that down the stretch of game 2, Van Gundy went to a no-point guard lineup. My assessment was pretty spot on here. The Lakers have dominated the matchup of the guards. Kobe is averaging 34.5 ppg, in spite of some great defense by Pietrus, & while Farmar, Brown & Vujacic have combined for less than 10 points in two games, Fisher has been tremendous on both ends of the floor and has been the steadying influence at point guard the Lakers have needed.
"Frontcourt: Rashard Lewis, Hedo, Gortat, & Dwight Howard vs. Pau, Ariza, Walton, Odom & BynumAdvantage: Magic. The key to this series is which team will be better able to exploit the matchup problem they cause with their front court. The Lakers are going to start w/ Ariza on Hedo, Pau on Lewis and Bynum on Howard. I do not like that matchup for the Lakers. Bynum is not a good enough shooter to draw Howard away from the hoop when the Lakers are on offense and thus, can prevent the Lakers from using their advantage inside in the Gasol-Lewis matchup. I think the Lakers really have two options & neither of them involve Andrew Bynum. The Lakers should either match Gasol on Howard and Lamar on Lewis, which would force Orlando to decide if they want to defend Gasol with Howard, which would enable the Lakers to pull Howard 12 feet away from the basket, lest Stan Van Gundy wants to see Pau Gasol make it rain all night from the midrange or defend Odom with Howard, most likely to similar results. The other matchup you could see the Lakers try is a lineup of 2 of Fisher, Brown, Farmar and Vujacic to go with Kobe, Ariza & Gasol. Kobe & Ariza would matchup against Lewis & Hedo. I think this could even be an intriguing lineup if you replace Gasol w/ Bynum and allow Bynum to show his worth against Superman for a few minutes.When push comes to shove, Howard is going to get his 20 &15 vs the Lakers, it's inevitable. The Lakers need to limit Lewis & Turk to under 40 ppg between the two of them and counter that with 40ppg from Gasol, Odom and Bynum. If the Lakers are able to do that, I expect they'll prevail."
Update: The Magic still have the advantage here, however Howard has been underwhelming. He’s getting the 15 rebounds I assumed he would, but has struggled to score the basketball. Turk & Lewis were held in check in game 1 & both had fantastic game 2 performances. However, the Lakers were able to get enough out of Odom & Gasol both nights to pull out the victories. The most intriguing matchup has been Odom-Lewis. Odom did a great job on Lewis in game 1 and an equally unimpressive job on Lewis in game 2. Lewis is going to score points, but Odom missed too many assignments and gave Lewis to many uncontested looks down the stretch in the 2nd quarter, which sparked Lewis’ 18 point quarter.
"I really don't like the matchup for the Lakers though, which is why I'm predicting Orlando to dictate the matchups and pace of play, plus I expect them to continue their red-shooting and crush Kobe's hopes of a post-Shaq title."
Update: Phil Jackson has done a great job refusing to give in to the Magic’s quirky lineup. He has stayed with his Gasol, Odom, Ariza, Kobe, Fisher lineup down the stretch and it has paid off. The Magic can’t seem to find an answer for Gasol AND Odom in the paint and when they’ve defended Kobe one on one, he’s been able to score, even when the Magic have contested shots well. His performance in game 1 was as good as any game he’s ever played. 40 points, 8 rebounds, 8 assists. It seemed like Kobe was trying to carve his name into the Finals MVP Trophy in game 1… and he may have succeeded.
"Orlando. In. Six.
just trying to be real....."
Update: Not going to update my prediction. I made my prediction, I have to live with it. I think the Magic have to be a bit discouraged after game 2, however heading home to the friendly confines of Orlando will be nice for game 3. I expect a Magic victory in game 3 & games 4 & 5 will be the turning point in the series. All three games at home are essential for Orlando, as beating the Lakers twice in a row at Staples is a rather large feat.
After two games, let’s see how my preview looks now.
"Backcourt: Rafer Alston, JJ Redick, Courtney Lee & Michael Pietrus vs. Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown, Sasha Vujacic and Kobe Bryant.Advantage: Lakers. The point guard position has been a real weakness for the Lakers all post-season, but they finally get a matchup that they can win. Alston is a bit of a wildcard & Orlando's lack of playoff experience in the backcourt could really wind up hurting them. Fisher should be able to match Alston's offensive numbers and in spite of his old legs, is still better defensively. If Pietrus is able to force Kobe into contested 16-20 footers, Orlando has a chance to keep this matchup close, but if the Magic cannot contain Kobe, I think the Lakers may have enough firepower....."
Update: Jameer Nelson is playing, and although playing limited minutes, provided a spark for the Magic in game 1. Interesting to note that down the stretch of game 2, Van Gundy went to a no-point guard lineup. My assessment was pretty spot on here. The Lakers have dominated the matchup of the guards. Kobe is averaging 34.5 ppg, in spite of some great defense by Pietrus, & while Farmar, Brown & Vujacic have combined for less than 10 points in two games, Fisher has been tremendous on both ends of the floor and has been the steadying influence at point guard the Lakers have needed.
"Frontcourt: Rashard Lewis, Hedo, Gortat, & Dwight Howard vs. Pau, Ariza, Walton, Odom & BynumAdvantage: Magic. The key to this series is which team will be better able to exploit the matchup problem they cause with their front court. The Lakers are going to start w/ Ariza on Hedo, Pau on Lewis and Bynum on Howard. I do not like that matchup for the Lakers. Bynum is not a good enough shooter to draw Howard away from the hoop when the Lakers are on offense and thus, can prevent the Lakers from using their advantage inside in the Gasol-Lewis matchup. I think the Lakers really have two options & neither of them involve Andrew Bynum. The Lakers should either match Gasol on Howard and Lamar on Lewis, which would force Orlando to decide if they want to defend Gasol with Howard, which would enable the Lakers to pull Howard 12 feet away from the basket, lest Stan Van Gundy wants to see Pau Gasol make it rain all night from the midrange or defend Odom with Howard, most likely to similar results. The other matchup you could see the Lakers try is a lineup of 2 of Fisher, Brown, Farmar and Vujacic to go with Kobe, Ariza & Gasol. Kobe & Ariza would matchup against Lewis & Hedo. I think this could even be an intriguing lineup if you replace Gasol w/ Bynum and allow Bynum to show his worth against Superman for a few minutes.When push comes to shove, Howard is going to get his 20 &15 vs the Lakers, it's inevitable. The Lakers need to limit Lewis & Turk to under 40 ppg between the two of them and counter that with 40ppg from Gasol, Odom and Bynum. If the Lakers are able to do that, I expect they'll prevail."
Update: The Magic still have the advantage here, however Howard has been underwhelming. He’s getting the 15 rebounds I assumed he would, but has struggled to score the basketball. Turk & Lewis were held in check in game 1 & both had fantastic game 2 performances. However, the Lakers were able to get enough out of Odom & Gasol both nights to pull out the victories. The most intriguing matchup has been Odom-Lewis. Odom did a great job on Lewis in game 1 and an equally unimpressive job on Lewis in game 2. Lewis is going to score points, but Odom missed too many assignments and gave Lewis to many uncontested looks down the stretch in the 2nd quarter, which sparked Lewis’ 18 point quarter.
"I really don't like the matchup for the Lakers though, which is why I'm predicting Orlando to dictate the matchups and pace of play, plus I expect them to continue their red-shooting and crush Kobe's hopes of a post-Shaq title."
Update: Phil Jackson has done a great job refusing to give in to the Magic’s quirky lineup. He has stayed with his Gasol, Odom, Ariza, Kobe, Fisher lineup down the stretch and it has paid off. The Magic can’t seem to find an answer for Gasol AND Odom in the paint and when they’ve defended Kobe one on one, he’s been able to score, even when the Magic have contested shots well. His performance in game 1 was as good as any game he’s ever played. 40 points, 8 rebounds, 8 assists. It seemed like Kobe was trying to carve his name into the Finals MVP Trophy in game 1… and he may have succeeded.
"Orlando. In. Six.
just trying to be real....."
Update: Not going to update my prediction. I made my prediction, I have to live with it. I think the Magic have to be a bit discouraged after game 2, however heading home to the friendly confines of Orlando will be nice for game 3. I expect a Magic victory in game 3 & games 4 & 5 will be the turning point in the series. All three games at home are essential for Orlando, as beating the Lakers twice in a row at Staples is a rather large feat.
Tuesday, June 2, 2009
NBA Finals Preview: Lakers-Magic
So in spite of the puppet commercials, David Stern was not able to rig a cleveland-lakers series... a lebron-kobe matchup, so the battle to be the heir-apparent to Jordan will have to wait a year, if it ever happens (I really believe that Kobe's window of being a special player is rapidly closing, I mean, I have to think hard to remember times this playoffs where he has been explosive going to the rim).
Instead, we get Orlando-Los Angeles. Trevor Ariza's past vs his present. The real X-Factor in this series is whether or not Jameer Nelson plays and if he does, how effective will he be? I'm going to assume that Jameer Nelson is not playing.... I just can't imagine someone being out for so long, then to come back for 7 games and be adjusted to NBA game speed.
Backcourt: Rafer Alston, JJ Redick, Courtney Lee & Michael Pietrus vs. Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown, Sasha Vujacic and Kobe Bryant.
Advantage: Lakers. The point guard position has been a real weakness for the Lakers all post-season, but they finally get a matchup that they can win. Alston is a bit of a wildcard & Orlando's lack of playoff experience in the backcourt could really wind up hurting them. Fisher should be able to match Alston's offensive numbers and in spite of his old legs, is still better defensively. If Pietrus is able to force Kobe into contested 16-20 footers, Orlando has a chance to keep this matchup close, but if the Magic cannot contain Kobe, I think the Lakers may have enough firepower.....
Frontcourt: Rashard Lewis, Hedo, Gortat, & Dwight Howard vs. Pau, Ariza, Walton, Odom & Bynum
Advantage: Magic. The key to this series is which team will be better able to exploit the matchup problem they cause with their front court. The Lakers are going to start w/ Ariza on Hedo, Pau on Lewis and Bynum on Howard. I do not like that matchup for the Lakers. Bynum is not a good enough shooter to draw Howard away from the hoop when the Lakers are on offense and thus, can prevent the Lakers from using their advantage inside in the Gasol-Lewis matchup. I think the Lakers really have two options & neither of them involve Andrew Bynum. The Lakers should either match Gasol on Howard and Lamar on Lewis, which would force Orlando to decide if they want to defend Gasol with Howard, which would enable the Lakers to pull Howard 12 feet away from the basket, lest Stan Van Gundy wants to see Pau Gasol make it rain all night from the midrange or defend Odom with Howard, most likely to similar results. The other matchup you could see the Lakers try is a lineup of 2 of Fisher, Brown, Farmar and Vujacic to go with Kobe, Ariza & Gasol. Kobe & Ariza would matchup against Lewis & Hedo. I think this could even be an intriguing lineup if you replace Gasol w/ Bynum and allow Bynum to show his worth against Superman for a few minutes.
When push comes to shove, Howard is going to get his 20 &15 vs the Lakers, it's inevitable. The Lakers need to limit Lewis & Turk to under 40 ppg between the two of them and counter that with 40ppg from Gasol, Odom and Bynum. If the Lakers are able to do that, I expect they'll prevail.
I really don't like the matchup for the Lakers though, which is why I'm predicting Orlando to dictate the matchups and pace of play, plus I expect them to continue their red-shooting and crush Kobe's hopes of a post-Shaq title.
Orlando. In. Six.
just trying to be real.....
Instead, we get Orlando-Los Angeles. Trevor Ariza's past vs his present. The real X-Factor in this series is whether or not Jameer Nelson plays and if he does, how effective will he be? I'm going to assume that Jameer Nelson is not playing.... I just can't imagine someone being out for so long, then to come back for 7 games and be adjusted to NBA game speed.
Backcourt: Rafer Alston, JJ Redick, Courtney Lee & Michael Pietrus vs. Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown, Sasha Vujacic and Kobe Bryant.
Advantage: Lakers. The point guard position has been a real weakness for the Lakers all post-season, but they finally get a matchup that they can win. Alston is a bit of a wildcard & Orlando's lack of playoff experience in the backcourt could really wind up hurting them. Fisher should be able to match Alston's offensive numbers and in spite of his old legs, is still better defensively. If Pietrus is able to force Kobe into contested 16-20 footers, Orlando has a chance to keep this matchup close, but if the Magic cannot contain Kobe, I think the Lakers may have enough firepower.....
Frontcourt: Rashard Lewis, Hedo, Gortat, & Dwight Howard vs. Pau, Ariza, Walton, Odom & Bynum
Advantage: Magic. The key to this series is which team will be better able to exploit the matchup problem they cause with their front court. The Lakers are going to start w/ Ariza on Hedo, Pau on Lewis and Bynum on Howard. I do not like that matchup for the Lakers. Bynum is not a good enough shooter to draw Howard away from the hoop when the Lakers are on offense and thus, can prevent the Lakers from using their advantage inside in the Gasol-Lewis matchup. I think the Lakers really have two options & neither of them involve Andrew Bynum. The Lakers should either match Gasol on Howard and Lamar on Lewis, which would force Orlando to decide if they want to defend Gasol with Howard, which would enable the Lakers to pull Howard 12 feet away from the basket, lest Stan Van Gundy wants to see Pau Gasol make it rain all night from the midrange or defend Odom with Howard, most likely to similar results. The other matchup you could see the Lakers try is a lineup of 2 of Fisher, Brown, Farmar and Vujacic to go with Kobe, Ariza & Gasol. Kobe & Ariza would matchup against Lewis & Hedo. I think this could even be an intriguing lineup if you replace Gasol w/ Bynum and allow Bynum to show his worth against Superman for a few minutes.
When push comes to shove, Howard is going to get his 20 &15 vs the Lakers, it's inevitable. The Lakers need to limit Lewis & Turk to under 40 ppg between the two of them and counter that with 40ppg from Gasol, Odom and Bynum. If the Lakers are able to do that, I expect they'll prevail.
I really don't like the matchup for the Lakers though, which is why I'm predicting Orlando to dictate the matchups and pace of play, plus I expect them to continue their red-shooting and crush Kobe's hopes of a post-Shaq title.
Orlando. In. Six.
just trying to be real.....
Friday, May 22, 2009
Denver-Los Angeles: Western Conference Finals
A few thoughts on Game 2:
#1) Phil Jackson got completely outcoached. I don’t understand why teams who have the ability to exploit a size advantage decide to allow other coaches to dictate. At one point, Denver had a lineup of Chauncey-JR Smith-Melo-Kleiza-Anderson. The Lakers should have countered with a lineup of PG (whoever that is now, I don’t know) – Kobe – Ariza – Odom/Gasol- Bynum. I know Kleiza hit 4 3’s, but don’t you keep making him make 3’s. That Denver lineup could not defend the Lakers. It forces Denver to put Smith or Chauncey on Kobe (both of which he has had great success with) and forces Kleiza to defend someone in the paint… good luck. Bynum played some great interior d for the Lakers and was a force on the glass
#2) the Laker big men have no concept of how to defend a pick and roll. It’s unfathomable to me that year after year this burns the Lakers. Look, Pau, when your man screens the top of the key, you cheat. You hedge to the side of the screen and change the path of the recipient of the screen. You cannot let him dictate his first move after the screen. It’s unreal watching this. Get out in front, hedge and force him backwards or wide.
#3) Yes, the refs were horrible and in the end, the Lakers may have been on the short end of the stick of some calls, but whatever, they lost the game in the last 4 minutes of the 2nd quarter. They were up 53-41. The half ended with a score of 55-54. Pathetic. The Lakers were 4 minutes away from driving a stake through the hearts of the Nuggets. To outplay the Lakers in Game 1 and lose and then to be down 15 at halftime of Game 2… you may as well have simmed the last 24 minutes of the game, it would have been over. Instead, the Lakers allowed the Nuggets to come back & gain confidence and turn the series around.
#4) How was Kobe not even an option on the final play? I understand using him as a decoy… kind of, but at least try to get the ball to him. That was pathetic.
#5) HOW DOES TREVOR ARIZA SPEND THE FIRST 6 MINUTES OF THE 4th QUARTER ON THE BENCH WHILE LUKE WALTON PLAYS?!?!?!?!? This is unbelievable. Seriously. Walton can’t defend, was terrible on the offensive side of the ball and did I mention, he can’t defend. Meanwhile, Ariza was playing great and instead they just ignored him. Great job Phil. Remember when Doc Rivers took you to the woodshed in the Finals last year…. And Adelman last round? Well, if you lose to George Karl…
#1) Phil Jackson got completely outcoached. I don’t understand why teams who have the ability to exploit a size advantage decide to allow other coaches to dictate. At one point, Denver had a lineup of Chauncey-JR Smith-Melo-Kleiza-Anderson. The Lakers should have countered with a lineup of PG (whoever that is now, I don’t know) – Kobe – Ariza – Odom/Gasol- Bynum. I know Kleiza hit 4 3’s, but don’t you keep making him make 3’s. That Denver lineup could not defend the Lakers. It forces Denver to put Smith or Chauncey on Kobe (both of which he has had great success with) and forces Kleiza to defend someone in the paint… good luck. Bynum played some great interior d for the Lakers and was a force on the glass
#2) the Laker big men have no concept of how to defend a pick and roll. It’s unfathomable to me that year after year this burns the Lakers. Look, Pau, when your man screens the top of the key, you cheat. You hedge to the side of the screen and change the path of the recipient of the screen. You cannot let him dictate his first move after the screen. It’s unreal watching this. Get out in front, hedge and force him backwards or wide.
#3) Yes, the refs were horrible and in the end, the Lakers may have been on the short end of the stick of some calls, but whatever, they lost the game in the last 4 minutes of the 2nd quarter. They were up 53-41. The half ended with a score of 55-54. Pathetic. The Lakers were 4 minutes away from driving a stake through the hearts of the Nuggets. To outplay the Lakers in Game 1 and lose and then to be down 15 at halftime of Game 2… you may as well have simmed the last 24 minutes of the game, it would have been over. Instead, the Lakers allowed the Nuggets to come back & gain confidence and turn the series around.
#4) How was Kobe not even an option on the final play? I understand using him as a decoy… kind of, but at least try to get the ball to him. That was pathetic.
#5) HOW DOES TREVOR ARIZA SPEND THE FIRST 6 MINUTES OF THE 4th QUARTER ON THE BENCH WHILE LUKE WALTON PLAYS?!?!?!?!? This is unbelievable. Seriously. Walton can’t defend, was terrible on the offensive side of the ball and did I mention, he can’t defend. Meanwhile, Ariza was playing great and instead they just ignored him. Great job Phil. Remember when Doc Rivers took you to the woodshed in the Finals last year…. And Adelman last round? Well, if you lose to George Karl…
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
2008-09 Season Wrap-Up: The Western Conference's Biggest Disappointment
So as the regular season has come to an end and while the first round of the playoffs lasts longer than any playoff round should, I decided to go back and determine this season's biggest disappointment in the Western Conference.
I have narrowed it down to 3 candidates, but would love to hear cases for others...
#3: Los Angeles Clippers: After acquiring Baron Davis & Marcus Camby in the off-season a 35 win season out of the Clippers was not that far-fetched, not with the promise of Al Thornton, who seemed primed to make the leap in year 2 and the potential of Eric Gordon. The Clippers weren't necessarily supposed to crack the playoff bubble in the west, but they were certainly expected to hang around the 8-10 range in the conference. Instead, they won about 4 games and the season was defined by general discontent between Baron Davis & Mike Dunleavy, as well as a trade for Zach Randolph, effectively ruining the Clippers cap until 2012. I think this season was a huge disappointment as it was supposed to be a stepping stone to a playoff run next year, however, it instead turned into an unmitigated disaster which will take years to recover from.
#2: New Orleans Hornets: This may be a bit premature, but considering they're down 3-1 in the playoffs and have 1 home game left and just lost by approximately 120 points to denver, I'm considering their season over. This is a wonderful opportunity for the Hornets to silence their critics... but i'm not counting on it. Heading into the season, the Hornets seemed prime to make the jump to the head of the Western Conference. They fell just short of a Conference Finals date with the Lakers last year & kept their core in tact in the off-season and added post-season specialist James Posey. The Hornets were a trendy pick to win the West & represent the West in the Finals or at least push the Lakers to the brink in the Conference Finals. Instead, the Hornets finished 7th in the West, Tyson Chandler was nearly traded, but failed a physical & they got bounced in the first round of the playoffs. A huge step back.
#1: Phoenix Suns: The fate of one franchise has never been so tragically fated by one official as the Suns. Tim Donaghy essentially cost them a chance at a championship three summers ago and the Suns have yet to recover. Instead of sticking to their system of the fun and gun, they traded for Shaq last year and tried to slow it down. Eventually the core of the team was blown up, with Raja Bell, Boris Diaw and Shawn Marion all gone and an injured Amare, an aging Shaq and a discontent Nash were all that remained. Forget competing with the Lakers in the Pacific, the Suns couldn't even manage to squeak out a playoff birth in 2008-09. Steve Kerr's tenure as GM has to come to an end this off-season. He tried to fix something that wasn't broken and failed miserably. From running off D'Antoni to alienating Nash, Kerr has been made wrong turn after wrong turn. His trade for Jason Richardson really ended up being the icing on the cake, where Raja Bell and Boris Diaw nearly helped carry the Bobcats to an unprobable playoff run in the Eastern Conference. The Suns missed their window for a championship & have to hope that a core of Barbosa-Robin Lopez-Jason Richardson can carry them in the future. Please re-read that. Nash is going to leave after next season and Amare seems about as out the door as Marion did. Shaq has maybe 1 year left in him... so yea, Barbosa-Robin Lopez-Jason Richardson.... yikes.
the Suns - your 2008-09 most disappointing team in the West....
I have narrowed it down to 3 candidates, but would love to hear cases for others...
#3: Los Angeles Clippers: After acquiring Baron Davis & Marcus Camby in the off-season a 35 win season out of the Clippers was not that far-fetched, not with the promise of Al Thornton, who seemed primed to make the leap in year 2 and the potential of Eric Gordon. The Clippers weren't necessarily supposed to crack the playoff bubble in the west, but they were certainly expected to hang around the 8-10 range in the conference. Instead, they won about 4 games and the season was defined by general discontent between Baron Davis & Mike Dunleavy, as well as a trade for Zach Randolph, effectively ruining the Clippers cap until 2012. I think this season was a huge disappointment as it was supposed to be a stepping stone to a playoff run next year, however, it instead turned into an unmitigated disaster which will take years to recover from.
#2: New Orleans Hornets: This may be a bit premature, but considering they're down 3-1 in the playoffs and have 1 home game left and just lost by approximately 120 points to denver, I'm considering their season over. This is a wonderful opportunity for the Hornets to silence their critics... but i'm not counting on it. Heading into the season, the Hornets seemed prime to make the jump to the head of the Western Conference. They fell just short of a Conference Finals date with the Lakers last year & kept their core in tact in the off-season and added post-season specialist James Posey. The Hornets were a trendy pick to win the West & represent the West in the Finals or at least push the Lakers to the brink in the Conference Finals. Instead, the Hornets finished 7th in the West, Tyson Chandler was nearly traded, but failed a physical & they got bounced in the first round of the playoffs. A huge step back.
#1: Phoenix Suns: The fate of one franchise has never been so tragically fated by one official as the Suns. Tim Donaghy essentially cost them a chance at a championship three summers ago and the Suns have yet to recover. Instead of sticking to their system of the fun and gun, they traded for Shaq last year and tried to slow it down. Eventually the core of the team was blown up, with Raja Bell, Boris Diaw and Shawn Marion all gone and an injured Amare, an aging Shaq and a discontent Nash were all that remained. Forget competing with the Lakers in the Pacific, the Suns couldn't even manage to squeak out a playoff birth in 2008-09. Steve Kerr's tenure as GM has to come to an end this off-season. He tried to fix something that wasn't broken and failed miserably. From running off D'Antoni to alienating Nash, Kerr has been made wrong turn after wrong turn. His trade for Jason Richardson really ended up being the icing on the cake, where Raja Bell and Boris Diaw nearly helped carry the Bobcats to an unprobable playoff run in the Eastern Conference. The Suns missed their window for a championship & have to hope that a core of Barbosa-Robin Lopez-Jason Richardson can carry them in the future. Please re-read that. Nash is going to leave after next season and Amare seems about as out the door as Marion did. Shaq has maybe 1 year left in him... so yea, Barbosa-Robin Lopez-Jason Richardson.... yikes.
the Suns - your 2008-09 most disappointing team in the West....
Monday, April 20, 2009
It's Kobe, Lebron, D-Wade, Dwight Howard, KG (Oh wait....) - it's the Playoffs!!!!
First and foremost... congrats to Lebron James on his first MVP Trophy. This is NOT an attempted reverse jinx. This is me basically saying that if you don't give the MVP to Lebron you're nuts. I've been behind D-Wade for most of this season, but looking back on it, you really have to give it to Lebron. I mean, his team won 66 games, he's become a force on the defensive end (thank you Olympics?)....
Anyway, everyone and their mothers are pretty much predicting a Lakers-Cavs NBA Finals. And to be honest, that's probably where the smart money is. I mean, the Lakers have dominated everyone in the West this year, save for Portland on the road, but the way Houston dominated Portland the other night, maybe Portland is still a year away from making the Leap. I mean, Houston could pose a problem for the Lakers in round 2 by throwing Battier and Artest and Kobe all night, but can they take advantage of the Lakers one glaring weakness, defending the opposing point guard? And in the East... with a KG-less Boston & with the general lack of experience in Orlando, Chicago & Philadelpia, would Atlanta or Miami really be Cleveland's biggest obstacle?
In a brief conversation with Mr. Robertson this weekend, I believe he was bucking the trend for the sake of bucking the trend and going with Orlando-Portland, but I could be wrong. Orlando was his preseason pick....
As promised... my awards:
MVP - Lebron (D-Wade gets my 2nd place vote and a homer vote for Kobe at #3)
Rookie of the Year - Derrick Rose (don't really have a second place vote, as it's unneccesary)
Coach of the Year - Mike Brown
6th Man of the Year - Chris "Birdman" Anderson
Breakout Player of the Year - tie: Kevin Durant & Brandon Roy
European of the Year - Pau Gasol
Worst GM of the Year - tie: Steve Kerr & Mike Dunleavy
Most likely to start a fight in the playoffs - J.R. Smith
Lowest Vertical Jump for a #1 Pick - Greg Oden
Best Rec-League Moves - Paul Pierce (for the 13th consecutive year)
Anyway, everyone and their mothers are pretty much predicting a Lakers-Cavs NBA Finals. And to be honest, that's probably where the smart money is. I mean, the Lakers have dominated everyone in the West this year, save for Portland on the road, but the way Houston dominated Portland the other night, maybe Portland is still a year away from making the Leap. I mean, Houston could pose a problem for the Lakers in round 2 by throwing Battier and Artest and Kobe all night, but can they take advantage of the Lakers one glaring weakness, defending the opposing point guard? And in the East... with a KG-less Boston & with the general lack of experience in Orlando, Chicago & Philadelpia, would Atlanta or Miami really be Cleveland's biggest obstacle?
In a brief conversation with Mr. Robertson this weekend, I believe he was bucking the trend for the sake of bucking the trend and going with Orlando-Portland, but I could be wrong. Orlando was his preseason pick....
As promised... my awards:
MVP - Lebron (D-Wade gets my 2nd place vote and a homer vote for Kobe at #3)
Rookie of the Year - Derrick Rose (don't really have a second place vote, as it's unneccesary)
Coach of the Year - Mike Brown
6th Man of the Year - Chris "Birdman" Anderson
Breakout Player of the Year - tie: Kevin Durant & Brandon Roy
European of the Year - Pau Gasol
Worst GM of the Year - tie: Steve Kerr & Mike Dunleavy
Most likely to start a fight in the playoffs - J.R. Smith
Lowest Vertical Jump for a #1 Pick - Greg Oden
Best Rec-League Moves - Paul Pierce (for the 13th consecutive year)
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