Power Rankings: December 30, 2008

So on Christmas Day, they showed that Lebron Powder commercial about twice every commercial break. I greatly enjoy the facial reaction of the dude in the barber-chair who realizes his barber just threw a bunch of powder in his afro. It's fantastic.

Just thought you all might have wanted to know that....

On to the power rankings....



30. Oklahoma City (3-29) – Westbrook has been very impressive of late.... [pv wk 30]

29. Minnesota (6-24) – Do you hear that? That’s the sound of Kevin McHale updating his resume…. [29]

28. Washington (6-23) – Caron Butler might be one of the most underrated defenders in the league. [28]

27. Sacramento (7-24) – Sac-town has lost 6th straight… [27]

26. Clippers (8-21) – On the bright side at least they’ll have a ton of cap space in 2010… oh wait…. Randolph! [25]

25. Indiana (10-20) – Danny Granger is wondering when this will end…. [23]

24. Golden State (10-23) – Nellie Ball not working out this year… [24]

23. Memphis (10-21) – On the bright side, at least they got a lot for Pau Gasol last year…. Nope. [22]

22. Charlotte (11-20) – Tougher team at home, but still a doormat on the road. [26]

21. New York (11-18) – Haven’t won a game since the last issue of the power rankings… D’Antoni! [18]

20. Toronto (12-19) – 2-6 since the last power rankings…. Frontline of Bargnani, Bosh & O’Neal had been disappointing. [20]

19. Philadelphia (12-18) – More of the same since the Mo Cheeks firing… At least signing Elton Brand to that big contract really worked out for them… [19]

18. Milwaukee (14-17) – 4-2 record since the last power rankings propels them all the way to 18 [21]

17. Chicago (14-17) – Quietly sitting in the 8th spot in the East despite being completely inept up front… [17]

16. New Jersey (15-16) – Devin Harris should be an all-star and if the Nets keep this up, could be a top 10 MVP candidate…. [16]

15. Miami (16-13) – Squandered a 9 point lead against Cleveland where D-Wade scored as many as Cleveland did in the 3rd quarter, but overall, an impressive two weeks for the Heat. [15]

14. Detroit (16-13) – Deeeeeeeeeeeeeetroit FOOT-BALL….. oh wait…. [14]

13. Utah (19-14) – 4-4 record since the latest power rankings causes drop to 13th…. And 9th in the West. [8]

12. Dallas (18-12) – Nice punch Dirk. [12]

11. Phoenix (17-12) –Heartbreaking loss to the Spurs on Christmas… you can’t leave Roger Mason open like that J-Rich… you just can’t, not when Grant Hill is blanketing Parker like that. [11]

10. Portland (19-12) – disappointing loss to Dallas, but still sitting at 6th in the West. Still think their best lineup is Roy-Rudy-Outlaw-Aldridge-Oden/Przybilla [10]

9. Houston (20-12) – Houston holding strong in the 5th seed out West. [9]

8. Denver (20-12) – losses to Atlanta and Portland keep them below the truly elite. [6]

7. Atlanta (20-10) – 6-1 since last power rankings (including wins over Detroit and Denver) and loss was a close defeat to Boston. Hawks seem to be quite the streaky team. Their frontline of J-Smith, Horford and Marvin might be the best 3-4-5 in the league. [13]

6. New Orleans (18-9) – Wins over San Antonio and Houston balanced out by losses to Lakers and Magic… and loss to Lakers wasn’t close. [7]

5. Orlando (24-7) – Mr. Roberston has discussed this, but can this team really take the leap to the Eastern Conference Finals with Boggans and Nelson in the backcourt? [4]

4. San Antonio (20-10) – Western Conference Finals rematch looking more and more likely… [5]

3. Lakers (25-5) – Two tough losses on the road balanced out by wins over New Orleans and Celtics. The class of the West plays their next three against Utah, Portland and New Orleans, all at Staples. [2]

2. Boston (28-4) – Tough loss against the Lakers, but that was forgiven… loss to Golden State causes slip to #2. [1]

1. Cleveland (26-4) – We are all witnesses. [3]

The Kobe Bryant 20-Shot Myth

So in listening to come talking heads on TV prior to the Lakers-Celtics game talking about the Lakers record when Kobe takes less than 20 shots and receiving a text message from a friend that read [paraphrased] the lakers are 11-0 when Kobe attempts less than 20 shots, I decided it was time for a post.

I know that i've already chronicled Kobe's shooting once this year, but these kind of comments really irk me. Yes, Kobe has a history of being a selfish player. No, the Lakers are not a better team when he isn't shooting...

The statistical analysis prior to the New Orleans game on December 22nd.

There have been 16 games where Kobe has taken 20 or more shots... the Lakers are 11-5....

There have been 11 games, where Kobe has attempted less than 20 shots, the Lakers are 11-0.

Of those 11 games, only 4 were decided by less than 13 points. Of those 4 (New Orleans, Chicago, Washington and Phoenix), the Lakers led by 15 or more going into the 4th quarter 3 of the 4 times. The only time they didn't was that game against Phoenix.

Of the 16 games he's taken at least 20 shots and the Lakers won (11 games), 6 games were decided by less than 10 points, with only the Clippers game on nov 5th being decided by more than 13. Three of the Lakers' five losses were by a combined 6 points.

In the games where Kobe took 20 or more shots:

1. 9 times he shot above his season avg on fg% (2 of which were losses)


2. 4 times he shot below 40% (only 1 of which was a loss - which was Sacramento where the lakers lost by 12)


3. 3 times he shot between 40% and 46.8% (2 of which were losses)

In the games he has taken less than 20 shots (all wins):

1. 5 times he shot above his season avg


2. 4 times he shot below 40%


3. 2 times he shot between 40% and 46.8%

Overall, in games where Kobe has taken 20+ shots, Kobe is shooting 46.93%, in games where he has taken less than 20 shots, he's shooting 46.55%.

So basically, in conclusion, Kobe's shot attempts are a direct correlation with the size of the Lakers lead or more appropriately, the lack thereof.

I'd like to not spend most of my articles defending Kobe, however I feel like he's taken a lot of criticism this year for no real reason. The game he played against Boston was one of his best of the year. Even though Gasol stole the show at the end, it was Kobe who drew the double team and passed to an open Gasol on all 3 of Gasol's 4th quarter buckets.

KOBE!

Christmas Thoughts

A few thoughts from Christmas:

1. Talk about Pau Gasol finding a way to silence his critics. After 40 minutes of play where Bickel and I were constantly calling him a disaster, with 4 minutes left, KG stole the ball from him, went down to the other end and dunked. Somehow, Pau came back from that and dominated the final 3 minutes of play on both sides of the ball. If Pau finds a way to not be afraid of KG or other intimidating 4s, the Lakes have a chance this year
2. When will we start talking about the Magic? Or are they just playing over their heads? Sometimes, you think. The Magic can't win. For pete's sake they play Bogans, Nelson, and Pietrus crucial big minutes! But, when you watch them, you realize that Nelson is a hell of a shooter, Pietrus can attack every so often, and Bogans is super awkward - but not super terrible. I do think they need to run the offense more through Rashard Lewis than they do. He really can score from the post. But, Van Gundy is a great coach, and Howard is only getting better.
3. The Suns keep losing heartbreaking games to the Spurs. It's getting really tough to watch. Shaq does look great on offense somehow this season. Duncan soundly answered the Amare-Duncan debate by dominating both ends of the floor - particularly in crunch time defending Amare.
4. Look for the newest trend in the NBA to be the "Kobe Tap." Twice on Christmas day Kobe jumped for a loose ball and knocked it forward up the court for a teammate to rundown and score. It's a super looking play and seems effective. I expect this to be as prevalent as running backs jumping over defenders this season in the NFL.
5. KG is the most intense dude around. There was a moment of real terror in the air during a press conference before the game. KG was asked about the significance of the game. He quietly said some flattering things about the Lakers. Then he said, "But it's not like we circled this game on our calendar." He followed by making eye contact with the reporter and, serious as cancer, he says "We circle every game on our calendar." KG is the only top player who legitimately has no off switch. For that reason, he's a Christmas gift for every NBA fan.
   

We Got your Awards right here!

Ladies and Gentlemen, I present to you the Trimester Awards! This is a bit shamelessly stolen from that horrid Canadian Marc Stein.



MVP Ballot:

1) LeBron James - This is perhaps the easiest choice you could ever make. James has been the best player in the league; and he happens to play on the best team in the league, that is solely the best team because of his utter dominance this year. For years I asked the question, what role players would you pair with LeBron James? This was as guys like Damon Jones, Larry Hughes, Wally Sczerbiak and others seemed to come to Cleveland and get worse. Then, finally, Mike Brown and the Cavs did it with Maurice Williams. The Mo Williams and Delonte West combo at the guards slots officially and finally end the painful "LeBron James is a Point Guard" experiment; which then gave birth to the "LeBron James is a shooting guard" experiment then to the "LeBron James is a Point Forward" experiment (getting tired yet?) and culminating, finally, in the LeBron James is a forward. Sure he is a forward in the same way Larry Bird was just a forward, but he is a guy who plays near the hoop, defends near the hoop, guards bigger, slower guys and only handles at the top of the key in bailout end of shot clock situations.

I have never liked LeBron personally. I don't think he's cool, or charismatic, and his dominating offensive play has never had the aesthetic flair of Jordan, Kobe, Reggie Miller, Amare, Wade, Stockton, Payton, Kemp . .. blah blah blah. He is a lot more like Shaq or Barkley - powerful freight trains. That being said, watching him this year has been a true pleasure. The way he moves off the ball around the baseline is breathtaking, his passing has finally become Bird-esqu a consistent flashy force, and his defense has been spirited (even though he still doesn't block as many shots as he could.) And, most importantly, he is playing 100% without ego, not caring about scoring titles, or numbers at all. I shall raise my glass to you. Even though "the LeBrons" commercials totally sucked.



2) Dwyane Wade

How do I love thee, D-Wade? Let me count the ways. We have not seen a player in the NBA this crazy since Kobe Bryant's 35.4 from the 05-06 campaign. The only difference is: while Kobe was scoring 60 in three quarters and 81 in four that season, Wade puts up bizarre stat lines like the 41 point, 11 assist, 5 block performance against the Raptors (in a loss). And the 44 on 23 shots against the Nets last evening. He has proven himself to be the most devastatingly unguardable player in the NBA. No one weaves through double or triple teams more often than Wade, and no player is handed more of an offensive burden than Flash. He plays defense the way Theo Ratliff used to. Would he be a better player if he stayed on his man and didn't dive into passing lanes or for weakside blocks constantly? Maybe. Would it be more entertaining? Nope.

3) Tim Duncan

At spot #3 it begins to get tough. Brandon Roy, Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, and Devin Harris can all make serious claims to this spot. Roy has been the leader and best player on a up and coming Trailblazers team. However, he is no longer merely the leader of a good team, but a legit top 8 player in the NBA. Paul has been as good as last year, when I thought he deserved the MVP. Howards numbers are absolutely ridiculous on the only team with a shot to beat Cleveland or Boston in the East. And Devin Harris has been a revelation in New Jersey, taking what I thought would be a 30 win team to a .500 record early in the season.

But with Duncan. The numbers are again right there: 21, 10, 2 over 50% from the field. But it is his mind numbing consistency on offense and defense that lets the Spurs not only get over injuries to Parker and Ginobili, but also allows them to mix and match different players and somehow create a winning formula. Roger Mason has never stuck anywhere in the league, and now he is shooting 50% from 3. Bowen is washed up. Ime Udoka hasn't figured it out yet. And, for chrissakes Matt Bonner plays power forward next to Duncan to start games. Yet Duncan's ridiculous defense and brilliant passing out of double teams, and screening on the backside and at the top of the key constantly keeps this teams as a top contender.

Again, apologies to Chris Paul who is shooting 52% from the field, 38% from beyond the arc and dropping in 11 assists per game. I just hink Dunc's defensive value and underrated passing (ie doesn't always equal assists) give him the edge so far.

Bounce Passes:

• I missed the game where Brandon Roy dropped 52 points on the Suns. I really didn't think that guy had it in him. I have been trying to figure out the most surprising 50 point game outbursts in my lifetime, and Roy's has to be right up there. The Blazers are a wildly fun team to watch. They are such a diversely talented team; but they will really need Jerryd Bayliss if they want to get to a championship level. Look for Nate to start working him in more to the rotation.
• There has been a lot of talk of "What's wrong with the Lakers?" The standard NBA analyst response is "Awfully critical of a team that is 21-5." Well, this is a team that has a championship coach, a veteran point guard, a top 20 all timer near his prime, an All Star Power forward, a top ten center, and a group of super solid wings and role players on the bench. This team should be 21-5. But, look at the Heat game. Every team with two legit bigs, does the same thing to the Heat: They pound it inside and get Haslem and Beasley into foul trouble. If Haslem can't go, they need to play Joel Anthony and Jamaal Magloire together, or go super small with Marion at the 4 - (who then gets put into foul trouble with a decent post up player.) This has been the recipe for any team beating the Heat. And the Lakers have the perfect personnel to pull this off. What did they do? They tried to beat the Heat with perimeter shooting. Now, the Lakes could have easily won that game; but it should not have been close. Also, Kobe was killing Wade in the mid to low post in that game; and killing Marion from the perimeter. It was clockwork for him - and where'd he go in the third quarter? It was a bizarre game that featured the play of the year so far by your favorite and mine - D-Wizzy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HnR0kIo7dzA
• We finally have to talk Devin Harris. Marc Stein, on a recent Simmons podcast, claimed that the Devin Harris - Jason Kidd trade was not a slam dunk for the Nets. Some BS about the Nets designing the offense for Harris and Kidd inspiring Nowitzki. Either way, it's total and utter bullshit. Devin Harris has been special this year. He is playing like a young Isaiah Thomas. Jason Kidd is playing like and old Jason Kidd. The Nets have been the most surprising team in the league this year thanks to this Harris.
• Bickel Response: Bickel Response! Bickel, you are absolutely on crank if you think Paul Millsap is going to sign somewhere for 4 million a year. You're aware Udonis Haslem makes 8 million a year, right? You're aware that Millsap is going for 15 and 9 in 30 minutes a game this year, right? You're aware that Boozer is leaving Utah this season and the Jazz will lock him up for 7 years and 74 million and he won't even be overpaid, right? Right? Bickel? Are you there? He ranks in the top 30 in PER. The guys above him: Chauncey Billups, Antawn Jamison, and Caron Butler. The guys behind him: Joe Johnson, Danny Granger, and Rajon Rondo.

Response to the response and a new point

Didn't Toronto fire Sam Mitchell?

I just think any offensive player would thrive in d'antoni's system. especially having watched the knicks the last two night (close defeats to the suns and lakers), i find this to be especially true about curry. he's a great passer and doesn't need a lot of space to get his jumper off, but he is also used to being a gunner. that would translate well to a d'antoni team but not necessarily to a team like utah or san antonio. then again, it's hard to judge how someone would play with others when he finally played with others who had legit talent (no offense bryant barr aka the lobster).... and nate robinson is AWESOME in mike's system.

I've also decided that the lakers should make a play at paul millsap after the season when lamar's contract expires. i'm not exactly sure what the lakers could actually offer millsap, given the extension the lakers just signed bynum to and the fact that they need to resign ariza, but millsap is awesome and is great in the third big man role. he's tough, he has a decent shot out to 14-18 feet and he tries to dunk on people. a lot.

i know he's got to be looking for a contract at least equal to that of ronny turiaf - who makes about 4M a year. after further review of the salary cap & the rules, the lakers could use the MLE to sign millsap (would this even be enough to get millsap?), then use their bird rights to re-sign trevor ariza. the lakers have 75M tied up next year already, assuming they were able to use most of the MLE on Millsap and resigned ariza to a 5-8M, that would bring that number up to about 85-86M. Further, that would bring their total to 11 players (fish, farmar, sasha, kobe, ariza, sun yue, millsap, gasol, bynum, walton and vladrad). so realistically, the lakers would need 2-3 more players, which would bring their payroll up around 90M... and this disregards kobe being able to opt-out and resign a bigger deal, but i doubt he'll wind up getting much more than the 23M he's due next year....

is there anyway the lakers can get out of vladrad's contract? hey vladrad, i heard there's a big snow storm up in tahoe... i'll cover your lift ticket...

also, dj augustin has been silencing his critics lately (namely me), especially last night when he tore apart d-rose and the bulls in an overtime victory.

Response to the Power Rankings

• Bickel claims that Steph Curry would fit in well in D'Antoni's system. This is roughly the one hundredth top college player that Bickel has said would fit in well in his system - most notable predecessors have been Nate Robinson and Kevin Durant. The thing is, though, I think this is an insult, because it indicates that they have little ability breaking down opponents in the backcourt. Steph will be able to score on anyone.
• Toronto badly needs a new coach. Bosh, O'Neal, and Bargnani can't play together. Bargnani gets crushed by small forwards.
• Great analysis on Orlando, by the way. Turkoglu is the most impressive player to watch on TV, in that, you always forget about him until you watch him play. He has the full complement of offensive moves, and can score from anywhere on the court. I guess I would be willing to call him the most underrated player in the NBA.
• I guess this should be my blog. But, with the Spurs, this has to be said: Duncan has been the best big in the NBA this year. Better than Howard, Boozer, Amare, or anyone else. He's amazing.

Power Ranking - 12/15/2008

Well Reggie, there's always T.V.

30. Oklahoma City (2-23) – I’m not even sure what I can say about them. They’re just not very good.... [pv wk 30]

29. Minnesota (4-19) – breaking up the gay-love era in Memphis for this…. [28]

28. Washington (4-17) – countdown until January (gil arenas’ return?) continues [27]

27. Sacramento (6-18) – fired reggie theus. Maloof brothers still regretting that all-star weekend in vegas [24]

26. Charlotte (7-17) – 0-3 week against teams all in the top 15 [25]

25. Clippers (6-17) – big win on the road in Portland followed by a home win against Houston… look for climb to continue [29]

24. Golden State (7-17) – wins over milwaukee, but losses to Houston and Denver to complete 1-2 week… [23]

23. Indiana (7-16) – six straight losses after win over lakers…. [21]

22. Memphis (9-15) – 3-0 week with wins over miami, chicago and okc... mayo to challenge rose for ROY? [26]

21. Milwaukee (10-15) – is there really anything that distinguishes the bucks from the raptors or the sixers? [22]

20. Toronto (10-13) – see Milwaukee comment [20]

19. Philadelphia (10-14) – fired cheeks. See Milwaukee comment [19]

18. New York (11-12) – thinking steph curry would fit nicely on a d’antoni team…. [18]

17. Chicago (11-12) – rose has my vote for ROY [17]

16. New Jersey (11-11) – did anyone really think the nets would challenge for a playoff spot in the east? I didn’t…. [16]

15. Miami (12-11) – quote from avid heat fan and fellow blogger anthony robertson coming on the heels of two straight heat losses, “if wade doesn’t score 30 on less than 20 shots, the heat have no chance… against anybody” [15]

14. Detroit (13-9) – took care of business with 2-0 week, but fall on basis of hawks win over cle [13]

13. Atlanta (14-9) – win over cleveland was hawks first big win in a month and a half [14]

12. Dallas (13-9)– currently the 8-seed in the west with 2-0 week. Wins over charlotte and okc not impressive enough to merit a rise over phoenix [12]

11. Phoenix (14-10) – win over orlando after trade was impressive, currently sitting in the 9 spot in the west, with an unhappy steve nash is not [11]

10. Portland (15-10) – winless week causes plummet [5]

9. Houston (15-9) – still not sold on them [10]

8. Utah (15-10) – impressive win over Portland on tnt last Thursday, but loss to orlando drops them behind hornets [7]

7. New Orleans (13-7) - showdown with spurs Wednesday night is game of the week in the nba…. [9]

6. Denver (16-7) – current two seed in the west gets jumped by san antonio [6]

5. San Antonio (15-8) – just as I suspected. San Antonio is currently the three seed in the west… [8]

4. Orlando (18-6) – wins in portland and utah sandwich 1-point loss at phoenix. Very impressive on their west coast swing that concludes with golden state tonight and started with a win over the clips. Face the lakers at home Saturday night in weekend’s best matchup [4]

3. Cleveland (20-4) – flip flop with lakers after loss to hawks [2]

2. Lakers (20-3) - more lackluster play from the lakers… wins over phoenix, sac and minnesota but not impressive. knicks, heat and magic upcoming [3]

1. Boston (22-2) – haven’t lost since November 14th [1]

More thoughts on the Richardson - Suns Trade

Two links from two guys, I trust. . . Eat it, Bickel.

Best quote from True Hoop: "In terms of how everyone is playing right now, and how much money they make, you could make the case that of the six assets changing hands -- Jason Richardson, Jared Dudley, a 2010 Charlotte second-round pick, Raja Bell, Boris Diaw, and Sean Singletary -- the Suns got the three best."

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-37-37/A-Spark-for-the-Suns.html

And, John Hollinger weighs in:

Favorite quote: "Richardson also is a great fit in Phoenix, especially if the Suns revert to playing more up-tempo. He's a high-flying finisher in transition, but he also led the NBA in 3-pointers made last season and is hitting 45.6 percent on 3s this season. With post threats Amare Stoudemire and Shaquille O'Neal to set him up, one shudders to think how many triples he can rain in with the Suns."

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=sunscatstradehollinger-081210&lpos=spotlight&lid=tab2pos2

What Bickel missed in his short and shoddy analysis of Bell and Richardson's three point percentages, is that all Raja Bell does is take open three pointers, and Richardson constantly takes three-pointers with a high level of difficulty, and shooting more open shots will cause his percentage to even go up more.

The Holy Wars

Bick:
Arob, i really don't understand this trade for the suns. i mean, honestly, does steve kerr have an idea for what he wants the identity of this team to be? are they a slow it down team with shaq or are they run and gun? jason richardson plays no defense and he traded away his best on ball defender and backup 4/5. i mean, matt barnes is going to be starting for them and does amare play defense? i mean, how are they going to stop anyone?


Arob:
Whoa, whoa, whoa. . . Jason Richardson is a massive upgrade over Matt Barnes. And Dudley is a tougher interior player than Diaw AND isnt' bitching about his coach. Does Richardson really play no defense. I remember that he killed Dirk in that Mavs series on defense. Raja Bell hasn't played defense in three years! Honestly, I think the Suns got the TWO best players in this trade. If I was Phoenix, I can now go Nash, Barbosa, Richardson, Amare, and Shaq .. .With Barnes and Lopez (who I am sadly impressed with) coming off the bench. And a lot has been made about how the Suns suck on defense. But, their bigger issue has been that they aren't scoring in the half court as effectively. Richardson is a better shooter than Bell, better driving the ball and I really think he's the equal on defense. Dudley's underrated. . . I don't see how this is bad for Phoenix. And, is it me or do the Suns seem better with those two goofy white centers tonight, than they do with Shaq?


Bick:
In all honesty, I forgot about barbosa. I was thinking the suns would be starting nash-richardson-barnes-amare-shaq. momentarily lapse of judgement in that email... but i refuse to acknowledge that dudley is better than diaw or bell. and raja bell is shooting 46.8% from 3-pt range this year, so i will also not acknowledge that richardson is a better shooter. richardson is shooting 45.8% but has taken significantly less threes (94 for bell and 59 for richardson). and dudley is averaging 5 & 3 in 21 minutes for the bobcats vs. 8 & 4 in 25 min for diaw... i disagree completely. but yeah on to your other point shaq doesn't just have his best days behind him, he has most of his good days behind him, yes, even on the heels of a 35 point night, i'm saying this. he's slow. he's out of shape. he doesn't even really protect the rim anymore. i mean, he's a complete liability against anyone who can hit a jump shot from 10 feet and he can't run the floor... that's why the suns look better tonight, because they're more fluid without him. who is this dragic guy?


Arob:
I am impressed by Dragic. It takes him forever to set up from beyond the arc, he shoots left handed and it never goes in. But he seems at least the offensive match of Luke Ridnour which is fine for a rotation player. However, Barbosa has been a dissapointment , right? Three years ago didn't he project to be the heir apparent to Nash and a guy who could run the point or play off the ball? Now he looks like a guy who can score in transition, and that's about it. His lack of development has been one of the most underrated aspects of the Suns collapse. Where was Kobe against the Kings last night?


Bick:
yeah, barbosa has been a massive disappointment. i can't believe it. i thought he was going to be awesome and he hasn't gotten any better. it's really shocking. it's definitely the most underrated part of the suns collapse. last night was just a terrible game from the lakers. kobe was nowhere. gasol was the only player on the lakers who showed up. kobe was taking terrible shots and getting killed by john salmons. killed. and francisco garcia was also killing them. it was just a poor performance from a team that was caught looking ahead to tonight's game with phoenix. they were playing a desperate team who still views them as a main rival and really got up for the game. kind of a perfect storm against the lakers. speaking of perfect storms... melo scored 33 in the third quarter. wow. he's gotta be loving that trade for chauncey, right?

Arob:
Yeah. He does love the Chauncey trade. One of the most underrated aspects of team construction is getting players comfortable in different roles and spaces on the floor. Melo and AI occupied the same spaces on the floor all the time. Both guys took tough shots, and were at their most comfortable putting the blinders on and going one on one with their guys. Chauncey takes a lot fewer shots, can hit open jumpers and stays solely around the perimeter. So now, Melo has the whole wing to work on, Nene has the post, . . . He puts everything in order with that team. This is what is so important about the Cavs this year, too. With Mo Williams and Delonte West, the Cavs have all the ballhandling and shooting they need around the top of the key. It forces LeBron from the foul line down, or he spots up for open threes instead of that awful step back three pointer. I've watched two Laker games this year, and Odom has looked bored in both. Is that normal?


Bick:
i would just like to point out that i read that right as odom dunked on amare. LAMAR ODOM, SILENCING HIS CRITICS!!! then he missed the free throw. yeah. lamar is a very jekyl and hyde player. some days he plays off his ass for his 25-30 minutes and some days, he does nothing. literally nothing. it's absurd. he should be a top 25 player in the nba with his skillset he just doesn't have the desire the great ones do. and the lamar dunk again. LAMAR ODOM, SILENCING HIS CRITICS!!! the cavs are great. i really want to put them atop the power rankings, i just cant justify it when they lost to boston in their head-to-head matchup and boston's won 12 straight. kobe for 3! this game is really concerning me as a laker fan. i mean, there's just something off about this team. shouldn't they be killing the short-handed suns?


Arob:
I just don't get the Lakers. You see them so much more than I do. But they really don't look any different to me than they did last year. They have definitely added players. Bynum and Ariza are both very, very good. But it doesn't yet add up to a better team to me. I still like them more than anyone, but I would really be comforted if Kobe, right now, would score the next 8 points and seal this game up (5:02 left.) I do wonder if Phil Jackson is starting to lose it. But, my opinion is so skewed because they have not played well in the two games I have seen them in, so I don't know. They are 15 games above .500... I hate to keep talking about the Cavs. But the biggest improvement on that team is Mike Brown, their head coach. He spent two years being LeBron's lackey/ defensive motivator. Now it looks like he has good grasp on the team and finally has the balls to play James at the 4. His rotation and team is really sharp. Who's the second best team in the West?


Bick:
the thing is, the lakers bench is what really was carrying them through most of the beginning of the year... the starters would get them out to a lead and the bench would literally put teams away. they bench has been awful in december. hopefully it picks up... ariza and vujacic have been impressive tonight.

second best team in the west... that's a toss up right now between denver, portland and san antonio. i feel like i'd have to go with denver right now, just because of melo and chauncey both being such fantastic complements for each other. san antonio will probably end up being the best or second best team in the west by the end of the year, but they need to win some more games for that to happen. i didnt even mention utah and new orleans... who were both in western conference semis last year. utah has been impressive this year, but new orleans has kinda been a disappointment. what happened with them? are there really issues between cp3 and byron scott? how could they not get along?


Arob:
This will be my final point. But Scott and Kidd got in fights by the end of his third year or so. I think Scott just wears on people. I don't know any more than that, really. I know very little about the West. Not quite as dominant. I have made it pretty clear I like the Spurs out there, but the Jazz is about the one top team I have seen play 0 minutes this year. I think it's cause I have distaste for Boozer. Any thoughts on the Jazz would be welcome this week. Lakers won unimpressively tonight. However, NBA teams only put forth full effort in about half the games, so it's a sin easily forgiven. I sure would like to see them when they are on all cylinders though.


Bick:
i will say, anyone willing to make a deal with a blind man and then go back on it, certainly has karma against him. ladies and gentlemen, carlos boozer.

Power Rankings

Ed Note - I have a much more extensive document, however it's in excel and I have yet to figure out how to properly format it for the blog, so this is what you get for this week...

30. oklahoma city - blake griffin, pagin blake griffin....
29. clippers - baron, zach randolph and al thornton make an interesting trio, need to move either kaman or camby
28. minnesota - al jefferson still a bright spot
27. washington - as many wins last week as rest of season combined and almost stole one against the lakers
26. memphis - still think mike conley jr isnt much of a pro...
25. charlotte - played miami tough.... but lost
24. sacramento - snapped 8 game losing streak with blowout win over lakers.
23. golden state - when does crash ellis return?
22. milwaukee - tough set of games for milwaukee last week, included roadies at lakers & suns... and resulted in two blowout losses
21. indiana - win over lakers highlighted other dismal 1-3 week.
20. toronto - 0-4 week.... is bosh looking forward to new york & 2010? doubtful... he's the lone bright spot on this dismal squad
19. philadelphia - really a disappointing year considering they have iggy hop & brand
18. new york - is it 2010 yet? the knicks slide to the lottery continues
17. chicago - rose might be an all-star already
16. new jersey - really loving that devin harris - jason kidd trade
15. miami - wade!
14. atlanta - hawks still struggling against good teams
13. detroit - 1-3 week. win over san antonio was lone bright spot
12. dallas - agree w/ mr robertson... kidd is second best pg on the team.
11. phoenix - big game in staples tomorrow night
10. houston - maybe i'm downgrading them because they're not an exciting team. yao went for 24 & 19, which is nice.
9. new orleans - 2-0 week, with win over phoenix puts them back at #9. tough stretch coming... 11 days, 6 games
8. san antonio - 3-1 week. manu + tp and a 32 and 10 night from duncan... ummm yeah, they're back. look out.
7. utah - deron still getting his legs under him
6. denver - keeping pace with the rest of the west's best
5. portland - tough loss to orlando at home... considering they were up 5 with less a minute to play.
4. orlando - 3 of the top 4 in the nba in the east?
3. lakers- not a very good week... losses to the queens and pacers, squeaking out a win over washington... ugly play from the lakers causes drop.
2. cleveland - 9 in a row for cleveland
1. boston - 12 in a row..... cruising.


Just for the blog sake, I will work on formatting the extended version of the power rankings... but just some opportunities for people to silence their critics...

DJ Augustin
Jason Kidd

Adam Morrison
Andrea Bargnani
Spencer Hawes
Eric Gordon....

consider yourselves called out....

Bounce Passes 12/9/2008

So I think I'm going to name my daily comments section "Bounce Passes" unless someone has a better title.  Really, any title would be better but I thought "Between the Legs" or "Around the Back" with Anthony Robertson were a bit too gay for anyone's need.  So, it's "Bounce Passes" for now.  Onto the thoughts:

• Current Championship pick:  Cleveland over San Antonio.  

1. Cleveland - LeBron has had little pressure on him and they blow teams out like crazy.  This from a team that has already shown it can commit 100% to the defensive end, and has yet to full gel?!  They just have been the most impressive team I have watched this season and will only get better.  The individuals don't seem to add up to championship, but they sure have depth.
2. San Antonio:  The Spurs are the Steelers of the NBA.  No matter what befalls them, they just keep winning.  Roger Mason? Ime Udoka? Fabricio Oberto?  All have played a huge role this season.  Duncan is still a top 5 players (yes, better than D Howard or A Stoudemire) and Manu and Tony get a whole season to figure out their new teammates.
3. LA Lakers:  Nothing bad to say about them.  However, I'm not sure they have solved their two biggest weaknesses - playing defense and unlocking tough defenses.  The other top 3 contenders all can do both.  A lot comes down to Bynum getting 100%.
4. Celts are still the Celts.  Dangerous and mean.  I think they are behind these other 3.

• Just to be clear, I am a huge Dwyane Wade homer.  However, he is the most exciting player in the NBA right now, bar none.  
• Has everyone noticed that Jason Kidd is now the second best point guard in Dallas?  The stats are damning, but actually watching the Mavs show that Kidd is finished and Barea could make this team interesting.
• Charles Barkley is a moron.  Bill Simmons wrote a beautiful article lionizing the TNT basketball crew of Ernie, Kenny and Charles about 5 years ago.  And, truly they did use to be entertaining and informative.  Now, they are only sometimes entertaining.  Barkley this year has said Kidd is still a great point guard and that Shaq has been better than Amare.  I don't think he watches.
• I hate to admit this, but I know absolutely nothing about the Denver Nuggets or how good of a player Chauncey Billups is.  I am completely lost.  If anyone has any thoughts, please let me know.
• I have never seen anyone rebound like Dwight Howard on the Magic.  It's wild, since he is so regularly playing with two perimeter guys on the frontline - Lewis and Turkoglu - Howard constantly jumps up among two or three guys to rip a rebound down.  He is great.  Unfortunately, he still does not have a single offensive move.
• Can we all please stop comparing every All-Star forward from Josh Howard to Lamar Odom to Scottie Pippen?  If there is one guy who needs to have a history about him rewritten it is Scottie.  Pippen was one of the greatest players of all time.  Compare Magic Johnson or LeBron James or Kevin Garnett to him - not these mere all stars.  Pipp was the best defender of my lifetime guarding everyone from Shawn Kemp to John Stockton with aplomb, a terrific point guard, and an MVP candidate both years Jordan was gone.
• That's all I got for this week . . . 

Kobe Bryant & his statistical decline

Kobe Bryant:

A lot is being made of Kobe Bryant’s statistical drop off this year. It causes a few questions to arise. #1) has Kobe lost a step? #2) is Kobe’s pinky injury really affecting him? #3) is it just that the Lakers have much more talent than they’ve had since the 3-peat or is it #4) a direct result of him playing less minutes?

My initial reaction is that is might be a combination of the four. But further research is necessary and will follow.

Through 15 games this year, Kobe is averaging his lowest points per game total since 2003-2004 and second lowest of his career since 2000. At the same time, he is averaging his lowest minutes per game (33.5) since 1997, his second year in the league. The initial reaction is that the drop-off is due to the decrease in minutes. That is further backed up by the fact that Kobe is shooting the highest percentage of his career from the field (46.9%). The one concerning thing about this percentage is Kobe’s inefficiency from beyond the arc. He is shooting 28.6% from 3-pt range, his lowest percentage since 2001-02 (25%). I think you could make the case that this is a result of either 1) tired legs from playing in the Olympics or 2) the injured pinky. Kobe’s decision to forego surgery on his pinky (which was also injured for the stretch run and the playoffs last year) has really affected his shot. From watching games, his shot is flatter than it has been in the past, which could also be a result of tired legs from the Olympics, but I’m going with the pinky.

Another interesting statistical deviation for Kobe is his FTA per game. He is currently averaging 6.3 FT per game, his lowest attempts per game since 1999-2000. Is this a result of Kobe’s decreased minutes, a result of him being less aggressive in driving to the basket, or a result of him having lost a step, thus being unable to turn the corner on defenders and draw the foul? Kobe’s FTA per 36 minutes (6.7) is down below his career average of 7.6. Kobe has been pulling up and settling for the midrange jumper more, which has led to a decrease in FT attempts, but in my opinion, it may not be any of the three. I think it’s a result of the Lakers being so far ahead in games late that Kobe hasn’t been forced to ice games at the end for the Lakers.

Looking at the remainder of his points per 36 minutes (26.2) is the fourth highest of his career. His assists per 36 minutes (4.5) are right in line with his career average of 4.6 and his rebounds per 36 minutes (5.4) are the fourth highest of his career, however his career average is 5.2, so it’s pretty much in line with his average as well. Kobe’s steals per 36 minutes (1.8) are the second highest of his career, which would also lead one to believe that the “he’s lost a step” theory would be put to rest since his defensive numbers are as solid as they’ve been in the past. This could also be a result of having a healthy Trevor Ariza and Andrew Bynum playing alongside him, both of whom are solid defenders in their own right.

Additionally, Kobe’s FGA per 36 minutes are the second highest of his career, which pretty much throws out the Kobe is deferring more to his teammates theory.



What does all this statistical analysis really mean?

After looking through all these stats, it would really appear that the majority of the declines in Kobe’s statistics are direct results of his decreased minutes. From watching a good amount of Laker games this year, this probably shouldn’t come as all that much of a surprise to me. He has been quite effective from 15 feet and in this year, and hasn’t been as big of a glutton for punishment (driving into the lane and forcing contact) as he has in the past, which would also help explain his drop off in FTA. As I mentioned earlier, Kobe’s outside shooting is concerning for Laker fans, as 28.6% is just not going to get it done. Laker fans need to hope it’s not a result of the injured pinky, as Kobe’s injury is not going to heal without surgery and the surgery isn’t happening this year.

Overall, I think from watching other players from around the league, this is the year that the torch is officially passed to Lebron and D-Wade in terms of statistical gaudiness. Kobe does seem to have lost a bit of his explosiveness and while he’s only 30 years old, he’s a 12 year veteran in the NBA. Kobe is still one of the elite players in the NBA, but I don’t think you say with any certainty anymore that he is hands down the best player in the NBA. At the same time, I still believe Kobe is an elite closer and would rather have him with the ball in his hands in need of a bucket at the end of the game than anyone else in basketball, if only because he can hurt you from anywhere on the court (in spite of his 28.6% 3-pt percentage at the time of the article - i still believe that Kobe can focus better than anyone else in the nba to hit a big shot).

Carry on.

The Great Three Point Debate

Here is the situation:

4 Seconds left

Down 3 points



Question: Who do you go to?



The significance, is that the other team will be guarding the three point line, and they won't double team and risk leaving a wide open shooter to win the game. So, what player do you want creating, taking and making a three pointer to go into overtime. Over the past couple of years the answer has always been pretty easy: Kobe Bryant (or Gilbert Arentas). Kobe is a top tier shooter, lightning quick and with size to get his shot off. Arenas is just about the best shooter being challenged from distance in the world. However, in 2008 Kobe is struggling on long two pointers and on three pointers - some say it is the pinky, some say it is his legs; but, either way he is not the same shooter from distance that he once was, and Gilbert I believe has been injured now since 1998, so he is out.

Apologies to:

Chauncey Billups
Mike Bibby
Kevin Durant
Joe Johnson
Ray Allen
Mike Redd
Adam Morrison
Deron Williams
Brandon Roy
Kobe Bryant
LeBron James
Dwyane Wade
Tony Parker
Manu Ginobili
Jason Richardson
Kevin Martin
Chris Paul
Deron Williams
Rasheed Wallace
Jason Kapono
DJ Augustin (I can't believe I said that name.)

Seriously, all of you can get this shot off for my team any day. But we're talking about the best here. . . And there are too many weaknesses.

The Contenders:

Dirk Nowitzki:

Dirk is huge at 7 feet, and a terrific shooter. He is even comfortable fading away from that sort of distance; and he has a history of making big plays in big moments (think Mavs-Spurs 2006). The drawback: If any team is smart, you put a lanky small forward on him (Posey, Marion, Allen, Prince, Julian Wright, . . . lots of these players) and Dirk can't get around him and can't get a decent look at the rim.

Tracy McGrady

T-Mac was built for this moment. He is a monster shooting guard, who, while not super quick, has incredible handle. (Seriously, his handle is sick.) We also have all remember this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceLlz7dOOvY

I think that T-Mac is getting a shot up and it will be close. Unfortunately, it's impossible to look past the fact that he is a career 33% shooter and shot under 30% last season. Just can't put the game in his hands.

Steve Nash

He would need a pick and a step back, but he really could be my pick here. Analysts, pundits, and morons always want to point to Nash's passing ability and "leadership" as why he is so good every season. These guys miss the point. Yes, Nash runs a heck of an offense, but what makes him a perrenial All Star is that he might be the best shooter in the league. Period. He is a lifetime 43% three point shooter, with a huge volume of three pointers. And this is not a Jason Kapono, J J Reddick, Roger Mason deal where his only job is to shoot. Nash keeps these ridiculous percentages up while making about a quarter of the Suns plays from game to game. Whether you think Nash has been overrated or underrated in his career (and you can make a case for both) he is just one hell of a shooter. The problem? He has just never been asked to make those types of plays at the end of games. We have all seen him drop 40 or 50 when he needs to, but how often has he faced the other team's best defender where he needs to get a shot up to win. . . These are things that T-Mac, Wade, James, Kobe, Pierce, Turkoglu, Ginobili and others are faced with regularly.

Paul Pierce

He's big, he's clutch, he's a good shooter; he has wily moves. Really, the only thing that keeps him from this is how slow he takes to get into his rhythm for a shot and what little quickness he has.

My Choice:

RUDY FERNANDEZ:

Yes. I'm aware that I'm an idiot. It may very well be that because his sample size is so small I am being overwhelmed. Would I really want the ball in Fernandez' hands over Bibby, Pierce, T-Mac . . . or even Wade, LeBron, Kobe, Joe Johnson . . . Well, yes. Rudy does a lot of things poorly: not much court vision, defensively lazy, doesn't rebound too much. But, man can the guy score the ball. He has range out to about 27 feet, he can shoot runners and fadeways from distance, he has a lightning first step and lightning quick release. And, though he is knew to the NBA, he has made big shots before and in the Olympics when being checked by the likes of Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, and D-Wade. For my money, no one is better at getting a deep shot up and in the hole than the Spaniard.