Saturday, December 6, 2008

The Great Three Point Debate

Here is the situation:

4 Seconds left

Down 3 points



Question: Who do you go to?



The significance, is that the other team will be guarding the three point line, and they won't double team and risk leaving a wide open shooter to win the game. So, what player do you want creating, taking and making a three pointer to go into overtime. Over the past couple of years the answer has always been pretty easy: Kobe Bryant (or Gilbert Arentas). Kobe is a top tier shooter, lightning quick and with size to get his shot off. Arenas is just about the best shooter being challenged from distance in the world. However, in 2008 Kobe is struggling on long two pointers and on three pointers - some say it is the pinky, some say it is his legs; but, either way he is not the same shooter from distance that he once was, and Gilbert I believe has been injured now since 1998, so he is out.

Apologies to:

Chauncey Billups
Mike Bibby
Kevin Durant
Joe Johnson
Ray Allen
Mike Redd
Adam Morrison
Deron Williams
Brandon Roy
Kobe Bryant
LeBron James
Dwyane Wade
Tony Parker
Manu Ginobili
Jason Richardson
Kevin Martin
Chris Paul
Deron Williams
Rasheed Wallace
Jason Kapono
DJ Augustin (I can't believe I said that name.)

Seriously, all of you can get this shot off for my team any day. But we're talking about the best here. . . And there are too many weaknesses.

The Contenders:

Dirk Nowitzki:

Dirk is huge at 7 feet, and a terrific shooter. He is even comfortable fading away from that sort of distance; and he has a history of making big plays in big moments (think Mavs-Spurs 2006). The drawback: If any team is smart, you put a lanky small forward on him (Posey, Marion, Allen, Prince, Julian Wright, . . . lots of these players) and Dirk can't get around him and can't get a decent look at the rim.

Tracy McGrady

T-Mac was built for this moment. He is a monster shooting guard, who, while not super quick, has incredible handle. (Seriously, his handle is sick.) We also have all remember this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceLlz7dOOvY

I think that T-Mac is getting a shot up and it will be close. Unfortunately, it's impossible to look past the fact that he is a career 33% shooter and shot under 30% last season. Just can't put the game in his hands.

Steve Nash

He would need a pick and a step back, but he really could be my pick here. Analysts, pundits, and morons always want to point to Nash's passing ability and "leadership" as why he is so good every season. These guys miss the point. Yes, Nash runs a heck of an offense, but what makes him a perrenial All Star is that he might be the best shooter in the league. Period. He is a lifetime 43% three point shooter, with a huge volume of three pointers. And this is not a Jason Kapono, J J Reddick, Roger Mason deal where his only job is to shoot. Nash keeps these ridiculous percentages up while making about a quarter of the Suns plays from game to game. Whether you think Nash has been overrated or underrated in his career (and you can make a case for both) he is just one hell of a shooter. The problem? He has just never been asked to make those types of plays at the end of games. We have all seen him drop 40 or 50 when he needs to, but how often has he faced the other team's best defender where he needs to get a shot up to win. . . These are things that T-Mac, Wade, James, Kobe, Pierce, Turkoglu, Ginobili and others are faced with regularly.

Paul Pierce

He's big, he's clutch, he's a good shooter; he has wily moves. Really, the only thing that keeps him from this is how slow he takes to get into his rhythm for a shot and what little quickness he has.

My Choice:

RUDY FERNANDEZ:

Yes. I'm aware that I'm an idiot. It may very well be that because his sample size is so small I am being overwhelmed. Would I really want the ball in Fernandez' hands over Bibby, Pierce, T-Mac . . . or even Wade, LeBron, Kobe, Joe Johnson . . . Well, yes. Rudy does a lot of things poorly: not much court vision, defensively lazy, doesn't rebound too much. But, man can the guy score the ball. He has range out to about 27 feet, he can shoot runners and fadeways from distance, he has a lightning first step and lightning quick release. And, though he is knew to the NBA, he has made big shots before and in the Olympics when being checked by the likes of Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, and D-Wade. For my money, no one is better at getting a deep shot up and in the hole than the Spaniard.

1 comment:

D. Bickel said...

I have many thoughts on this topic... but i will leave you with one tonight... i greatly enjoy that the winner of this debate is not his team's first option with 4 seconds left.... portland goes to roy. everytime. i also understand this aligns me with nate mcmillan. is that a good thing?