NBA Finals Update

So last week I came out with a mini-Finals preview….

After two games, let’s see how my preview looks now.


"Backcourt: Rafer Alston, JJ Redick, Courtney Lee & Michael Pietrus vs. Derek Fisher, Jordan Farmar, Shannon Brown, Sasha Vujacic and Kobe Bryant.Advantage: Lakers. The point guard position has been a real weakness for the Lakers all post-season, but they finally get a matchup that they can win. Alston is a bit of a wildcard & Orlando's lack of playoff experience in the backcourt could really wind up hurting them. Fisher should be able to match Alston's offensive numbers and in spite of his old legs, is still better defensively. If Pietrus is able to force Kobe into contested 16-20 footers, Orlando has a chance to keep this matchup close, but if the Magic cannot contain Kobe, I think the Lakers may have enough firepower....."

Update: Jameer Nelson is playing, and although playing limited minutes, provided a spark for the Magic in game 1. Interesting to note that down the stretch of game 2, Van Gundy went to a no-point guard lineup. My assessment was pretty spot on here. The Lakers have dominated the matchup of the guards. Kobe is averaging 34.5 ppg, in spite of some great defense by Pietrus, & while Farmar, Brown & Vujacic have combined for less than 10 points in two games, Fisher has been tremendous on both ends of the floor and has been the steadying influence at point guard the Lakers have needed.

"Frontcourt: Rashard Lewis, Hedo, Gortat, & Dwight Howard vs. Pau, Ariza, Walton, Odom & BynumAdvantage: Magic. The key to this series is which team will be better able to exploit the matchup problem they cause with their front court. The Lakers are going to start w/ Ariza on Hedo, Pau on Lewis and Bynum on Howard. I do not like that matchup for the Lakers. Bynum is not a good enough shooter to draw Howard away from the hoop when the Lakers are on offense and thus, can prevent the Lakers from using their advantage inside in the Gasol-Lewis matchup. I think the Lakers really have two options & neither of them involve Andrew Bynum. The Lakers should either match Gasol on Howard and Lamar on Lewis, which would force Orlando to decide if they want to defend Gasol with Howard, which would enable the Lakers to pull Howard 12 feet away from the basket, lest Stan Van Gundy wants to see Pau Gasol make it rain all night from the midrange or defend Odom with Howard, most likely to similar results. The other matchup you could see the Lakers try is a lineup of 2 of Fisher, Brown, Farmar and Vujacic to go with Kobe, Ariza & Gasol. Kobe & Ariza would matchup against Lewis & Hedo. I think this could even be an intriguing lineup if you replace Gasol w/ Bynum and allow Bynum to show his worth against Superman for a few minutes.When push comes to shove, Howard is going to get his 20 &15 vs the Lakers, it's inevitable. The Lakers need to limit Lewis & Turk to under 40 ppg between the two of them and counter that with 40ppg from Gasol, Odom and Bynum. If the Lakers are able to do that, I expect they'll prevail."

Update: The Magic still have the advantage here, however Howard has been underwhelming. He’s getting the 15 rebounds I assumed he would, but has struggled to score the basketball. Turk & Lewis were held in check in game 1 & both had fantastic game 2 performances. However, the Lakers were able to get enough out of Odom & Gasol both nights to pull out the victories. The most intriguing matchup has been Odom-Lewis. Odom did a great job on Lewis in game 1 and an equally unimpressive job on Lewis in game 2. Lewis is going to score points, but Odom missed too many assignments and gave Lewis to many uncontested looks down the stretch in the 2nd quarter, which sparked Lewis’ 18 point quarter.

"I really don't like the matchup for the Lakers though, which is why I'm predicting Orlando to dictate the matchups and pace of play, plus I expect them to continue their red-shooting and crush Kobe's hopes of a post-Shaq title."

Update: Phil Jackson has done a great job refusing to give in to the Magic’s quirky lineup. He has stayed with his Gasol, Odom, Ariza, Kobe, Fisher lineup down the stretch and it has paid off. The Magic can’t seem to find an answer for Gasol AND Odom in the paint and when they’ve defended Kobe one on one, he’s been able to score, even when the Magic have contested shots well. His performance in game 1 was as good as any game he’s ever played. 40 points, 8 rebounds, 8 assists. It seemed like Kobe was trying to carve his name into the Finals MVP Trophy in game 1… and he may have succeeded.

"Orlando. In. Six.

just trying to be real....."

Update: Not going to update my prediction. I made my prediction, I have to live with it. I think the Magic have to be a bit discouraged after game 2, however heading home to the friendly confines of Orlando will be nice for game 3. I expect a Magic victory in game 3 & games 4 & 5 will be the turning point in the series. All three games at home are essential for Orlando, as beating the Lakers twice in a row at Staples is a rather large feat.