Rookie Guard Breakdown: 2 of 6

Mario Chalmers:

As a man who watches very little college basketball, and was in Europe during March Madness, my knowledge of Mario Chalmers coming out of college was just about nothing. As a big Heat fan, my hope for the kid was only that he would steal any and all minutes designated for Marcus Banks.
(Quick aside: Watching Marcus Banks and Mark Blount play basketball are one of those things you just can't unsee. I can't imagine two players that have fewer actual basketball skills than these two guys. )

Luckily for Miami, Chalmers has done just that. First the numbers. 9 points, 4 dimes, 3 ballboards, and just under 2 steals a game and 2 turnovers.

A quick question and answer session:

Is Mario a true point guard?
Yes. Absolutely. Now, he is no Chris Paul or Tony Parker and never will be. Chalmers is more of a Mo Williams, Mike Bibby, Jameer Nelson type. Chalmers can get you into your offense, nail open shots, and if the shot clock is winding down, he is a reliable option to get to the hoop and try to finish. But he can definitely hold down the position.

Can he knock down 3s?
Again, good Lord yes. He is shooting .362 from beyond the arc so far, but that is after a wildly slow start. Granted, being Wade's jockey in the back court you get a ton of open looks, but since the first game in the NBA he has shown zero hesitation to shoot, even with a hand in his face, as long as he is in rhythm.

What else about his offensive game?
It's awful tough to show off anything when you are playing next to an unstoppable whirling dervish of a guard like Wade. Dwyane Wade is posting one of the highest usage rates in NBA history, meaning, no one has ever carried a bigger offensive load for his team than Wade is this year. It's tough for Chalmers to show off much of anything. But he has shown flashes of all the necessary skills - passing into the post, finding guys on backdoor screens, and penetrating and popping to a wing. I can't tell if he does all of these things rarely, because of the offense and Wade being superior at each one of these skills or if he is simply not comfortable with it. Certainly, he does not yet have a reliable way to score the basket that is not on an open three point shot, and he is much more comfortable shooting from beyond the arc than anywhere else on the court. Athletically, he is not a freak, so he has a little trouble finishing around the whole. Again, Jameer Nelson, Mike Bibby, Mo Williams all run into the same problem and all have adapted to become legit starters in the NBA and very good players. Chalmers will have to learn that sort of craft.

Defense?
Chalmers has shown a super effort on defense from the moment he got into the NBA. He is regularly more interested than Wade in closing out defenders and manning up hard at half court to disrupt an offense. Again, his athleticism isn't superb, so he will never be a guy who can run down the court and block shots on fast breaks. However, his lateral quickness is world class. Chalmers can stay in front of anyone and has knack for poking the ball away when guards try to get by him. There is really nothing I can say badly about him on that end. He is fun to watch, fundamentally sound, and intense on the defensive end.

How does he play with D-Wizzy?
Ha. On defense together, they are absurd. Earlier in the season, they combined for 15 steals (Chalmers chipping in 9). Both are already in their own class when it comes to knocking the ball away from point guards, jumping into passing lanes and deflecting any and all passes. At the same time, Spoelestra may have to figure out how to quiet one player down and just have one go wild. We all remember that Jordan could not have been Jordan on those later Bulls teams without Ron Harper doing the Bruce Bowen routine on every great guard they faced. I think they need to have Chalmers start taking the tough defensive assignments, and letting Wade just do the wild man thing. The Heat give up a ton of wide open looks because of how wild these two play.

On offense, Chalmers gets out of Dwyane's way for the most part. He is good at getting to open spots on the floor when Dwyane gets into the lane, and he is really the only other guy in their starting 5 who can be relied on to get a shot off with under 6 on the shot clock (Haslem can too if he is in the post). They have no real chemistry together yet, as Wade has been determined to will this team to the playoffs and worry about relationships later.

Outlook for '09:
Chalmers is who he is for this season. We are going to hear announcers in the playoffs talk about "how far Mario has come" in his rookie year. But that will all, essentially, be hogwash. Chalmers has been the same player from his first game against the Knicks until this season. I can't say it's his fault. He is being thrown an absolute ton: 31 minutes a game at the hardest position in the NBA, on a team that his little margin for error but high expectations. Just the fact that he has been able to process it all and still be just under a league average offensive player (PER: 12.31) is extremely impressive. But don't expect any Tony Parker, Rajon Rondo like offensive performances this season. He will keep knocking down open shots, playing killer D, and making about 2 - 4 plays a game for himself or teammates off the dribble. He will also keep turning the ball over a little too much for how little he has it and not helping out on the glass at all.

Outlook for career:
I have hinted at who I thought he could be. His ceiling is Mike Bibby: an cold-blooded clutch shooter who thrives on great teams with plenty of playmakers, and can sometimes. His floor is someone like Anthony Johnson - a guy who could just never create enough plays for himself or teammates to hold down a starting job. But, was and is a reliable backup who can start in a pinch. Of all the things I have mentioned. Maybe the best thing about Mario is how sure he is that he belongs in the league. He has confidence in droves, and I project him to be a rotation player on good teams his whole career.